Lightning-caused fires west of Sunriver and adjacent to Mt. Bachelor have had the Sunriver Resort and Three Rivers South communities on "standby to evacuate" mode for the last few days. While the air quality in these neighborhoods has been relatively good, the SSW winds were blowing most of the heavy smoke into Bend. Ash fell from the sky like snow, blanketing vehicles and creating an ominous, eerie mood in town. Fortunately, it is raining in Sunriver this morning, with rain forecast throughout the day, hopefully preventing an escalation to mandatory evacuation. I have relied mainly on the "Watch Duty" app, which provides updates on fire activity and notifications of changes in the evacuation status. Advanced notice has been excellent between Watch Duty, social media, and signs on the roadways. However, any evacuation notice is stressful, and deciding what to take as you leave your home and possessions behind is stressful. Also, the evacuation from most of Sunriver and Three Rivers South is a single road that would likely become backed up with residents all leaving simultaneously. All another day of living in the shadow of the Cascade Mountains!
Surprisingly, this week, the inventory in Deschutes County increased by ten to 1261 single-family homes listed for sale.In many cases, the housing market doesn't immediately respond to positive changes in the dynamics impacting buyers. Mortgage rates have improved significantly over the last several days, but pending transaction volume has remained stable. This morning, the 30-year fixed-rate national average for a conventional loan is 6.22%, down from 7.43% on April 22, 2024. Seventy-three pending sales this week, with seventy-two closed transactions, is undoubtedly strong activity relative to this year's sales volume. Still, I expected more activity with a nearly 125 basis point drop from last spring's peak.
With so much emphasis placed on the upcoming Fed meeting and an expected overnight rate decrease of at least 25 basis points, many buyers might be waiting for better rates. While the Fed telegraphed more decreases in the November and December meetings, rates today have already priced in the September Fed rate cut. In the unlikely event that Jerome Powell cuts 50 basis points, mortgages might decline further, but that seems like a stretch. The Central Oregon housing market is bound by seasonal weather and the holidays, with far fewer transactions typically taking place in November and December than at other times of the year. As homes come off the market and selection dwindles the dynamics change. There is little doubt that off-season buying can be a great time to negotiate better deals, but robust selection is not a defining characteristic of the off-season. I still maintain that short of a devastating recession, if mortgage rates in the spring of 2025 are in the mid-5 % range, there will be upward pressure on prices, and inventory will be less than we see today. However, the lenders I speak with are seeing an uptick in refinance applications.
Crook County inventory increased three this week to 167 single-family homes listed for sale. Five pending sales and two closed transactions rounded out a tepid week in terms of transactions.
Jefferson County inventory dropped three to 116 single-family listings, with seven pending sales, and three closed transactions.
Whether back-to-school, fire season, election uncertainty, or waiting for better rates are to blame for the modest transaction volume of late, these factors do not change the fact that Central Oregon has more selection at better pricing than we have witnessed in a few years. Sometimes, waiting fits personal circumstances best, and there is no one-size-fits-all approach to housing. However, passing up these small windows of opportunity has not resulted in better conditions over the last few years. No matter your situation, I am happy to assist in any way I can to help you determine the right move for you!
