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Broadly speaking, the average closed sale price is holding steady. But on an individual basis, some deals are available. Seller concessions aren't always apparent in the sales data, but they can be extremely helpful for buyers. Two-one rate buydowns are particularly helpful: the seller prepays interest, giving the buyer a 2% rate reduction the first year and 1% the second, with the remaining 28 years of the mortgage at the quoted rate when locked in. The premise behind these mortages is that buyers get immediate relief in their monthly payment, and can refinance when rates decrease in the future. The biggest question today is when rates will decrease, and nobody has an answer. Your lender can tell you which lending product is the best fit, and now is the time to keep that line of communication open. I am also available if you need help with a personalized market analysis for your specific needs.

 

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While mortgage rates may be high, the data shows consistent activity as we approach fall. The biggest decline in activity occurred in 2023 after mortgage rates first rose after many years of abnormally low rates. Since 2023, activity has been steady and has increased each year incrementally, with stable pricing. Overall, despite geopolitical uncertainty, our economy is strong, and housing demand in Central Oregon is steady. Higher rates may soften demand to some degree, but the last few years have shown remarkable resilience among home buyers in our region. However, sellers should price accordingly given higher borrowing costs.

 

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This week, the Federal Reserve raised the overnight rate by 25 basis points, with expectations of another hike at the next meeting. It is tedious to read all the housing proponents pointing out that the overnight rate isn’t directly correlated with mortgage rates, and while that is true, you would have to have your head in the sand not to see that mortgage rates will be affected. The 10-year Treasury closed above 5% for the first time since 2007 and now sits at 4.998%, while the 30-year Jumbo national average is 7.36% and the 30-year Conventional average is 7.20%. Since conventional rates reached a low of 5.99% in February, rates and inflation have been trending upward. Kevin Warsh, the new Chairman of the Fed, is determined to get a handle on inflation, which has been above the mandated 2% target for over five years. Whether inflation is managed remains to be seen, but we are already seeing the impact of higher rates in the housing market. All but one segment of the luxury market saw week-over-week inventory growth, as activity slows.

Quoting Graham Summers of Phoenix Capital Research, “To be clear, 3.4% inflation is a long way from 2022. The economy is growing, payrolls are solid, and a Fed hiking into strength behaves very differently from a Fed hiking into a recession. I am not calling for a crisis.” The Fed may be hiking into strength, and Central Oregon shows continued growth, but in the foreseeable future, housing will look quite a bit different than it has in the recent past.

Deschutes County single-family home inventory between $1 million and $1,999,999 increased by 4 this week to 368, with 218 (59.24%) reducing the asking price by an average of 7.93%. Pending sales are down 3 from last week to 12, with 5 of those listings reducing the asking price by an average of 11.53% before securing a contract. Six closed transactions this week are down from 13 last week, with a sold-to-original-list-price ratio of 92.03%.

Single-family listings between $2 million and $2,999,999 are up by 3 from last week to 72, with 27 (37.5%) showing an average price reduction of 8.94%. Two pending sales match last week’s total, with one listing reducing the asking price by 1.41% before securing a contract. Two closed transactions double last week’s total, with no price reductions before securing a buyer, and a sold-to-original-list-price ratio of 96.15%. Throughout this cycle, higher-priced homes have maintained a higher sold-price ratio.

Desirable homes are still selling and maintaining strong sold-to-list price ratios, but accurate pricing is more important than ever. TD Securities expected three rate hikes in the cycle before the Fed raised rates by 25 basis points. That leaves at least two more hikes on the table, assuming that is enough to calm inflation at a time when the Treasury is buying back Bonds and increasing the M2 Money Supply. There is no question the housing market has moved into a new cycle, and tracking the weekly data will show exactly how much of an impact economic conditions will have. Stay tuned!

 

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Central Oregon housing prices are holding up remarkably well, but there is no question the market is shifting. How big a shift remains to be seen, and so far the data signals are small. The first is elevated inventory at a time of year when it typically declines steadily. The second indicator is a growing number of price reductions in the active inventory. Both factors mean increased competition for sellers.

Another major factor affecting our housing market is economic conditions that are increasingly weighing on buyer sentiment—inflation, with the most recent CPI print at 3.4% and Core CPI at 2.4%. Inflation is pressuring bonds, with the 10-year Treasury at 5.05%, the first time it has broken 5% since 2007. Mortgage rates are closely tied to the 10-year Treasury, and the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage is 7.19% today, up from 6.89% last week. Lest you think the rise in mortgage rates is short-lived, Kevin Warsh of the Federal Reserve announced today a 25-basis-point hike in the overnight rate. Graham Summers, Chief Market Strategist for Phoenix Capital Research, believes bond investors expect three more 25-basis-point rate increases (linked above). Given that inflation was last below 2% in 2021, it is clear the Fed has not met its inflation mandate in years. All of this considered, expect more changes in the housing market over the coming months.

Today in Deschutes County, there are 1,429 single-family listings, down 12 from last week. There are 858 price reductions in the active inventory, or 60.04% of the active market, averaging 6.61%. The average days on market are 104. Seventy-six pending sales match last week, with 42 (55.26%) reducing the asking price by an average of 8.6% before securing a contract. Seventy closed transactions are up by 18 from last week, with 40 (57.14%) reducing their asking price by an average of 5.27% before securing a buyer. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 94.77%, with the average price per square foot at $395.

In Crook County, inventory is up by 5 to 269 single-family listings, with 153 price reductions (56.88%) and an average reduction of 6.96%. The average days on the market in Crook County is 134. Pending sales are up 4 from last week to 10, and 3 (30%) changed the asking price. Two of those changes were new construction, where the price went up slightly, with one listing dropping from $724,900 to $719,000 before securing a contract. Seven closed transactions are down by 1 from last week, with all seven reducing the asking price by an average of 10.44% before securing a buyer. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 83.28%, and the average price per square foot was $869. The week's largest sale was an extensive equestrian facility that closed at $6,800,000, skewing the price per square foot. Removing that large sale drops the average price per square foot to $316.

Jefferson County inventory dropped from 154 to 153, with 86 price reductions (56.21%) averaging 6.18%. The average days listed for single-family homes in the county is 141. Pending sales increased from 3 to 4 this week, with one price reduction of 2.56% before going under contract. Five transactions closed this week, up from 2 last week, with 3 reducing the asking price by an average of 2.06% before securing a buyer. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 96.68%, with the average price per square foot at $330.

With rising mortgage rates and increased inventory this fall, sellers need to price accordingly. While our market might not be falling right now, increased competition in the active inventory is creating many opportunities for buyers. Looking back to February 2026, mortgage rates hit a low of 5.99%, with many believing that marked the start of a downward trend for borrowers. From today’s vantage point, it looks like the days of the 7% mortgage are back, and likely to continue.

Quoting Graham Summers, “To be clear, 3.4% inflation is a long way from 2022. The economy is growing, payrolls are solid, and a Fed hiking into strength behaves very differently from a Fed hiking into a recession. I am not calling for a crisis.”

While higher borrowing costs are a headwind for buyers, that doesn’t change Central Oregon's desirability or the growth our region has experienced for several years. It does force sellers to be in tune with pricing, and as always, I am happy to provide a market analysis for your specific needs.

 

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As mortgage rates continue to climb, the peak of the summer season is winding down. Current economic conditions have not affected all price tranches covered in this report equally, so I will provide year-over-year comparisons to show how today’s market compares. Broadly speaking, the high-water mark was in 2022, but at the highest price points, sale prices are exceeding values from a few years ago. Desirable locations and exceptional homes are attracting discerning buyers.

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Deschutes County single-family homes listed between $1 million and $1,999,999 are at 364 this week, down by 4 from last week. This week in 2025, there were a nearly identical number of listings at 369. Fifteen pending sales this week are up by 7 from last week, with 6 of those listings reducing the asking price by an average of 7.78% before securing a contract. Thirteen closed transactions are 1 fewer than last week, with 5 of those listings reducing their asking price by an average of 12.76%. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio this week was 92.42%.

Listings in Deschutes County between $2 million and $2,999,999 are down by 4 this week to 69. This week in 2025, there were 94 active listings. Two pending sales this week are down by 1 from last week: one at $2.2M and another at $2.495M, and one reducing the asking price by 16.69% before securing a contract. One transaction closed this week for $2.2M, down 2 from last week. The closed transaction did not reduce the asking price before securing a buyer, but closed at 95.71% of full price.

Forty active listings over $3 million in Deschutes County equals last week’s number, compared to 49 this week in 2025. No sales are pending this week compared with 2 pending sales last week. One transaction closed this week in Tetherow for the full asking price of $3,150,000.

Crook County supply over $1 million increased this week by 3 to 71. This week in 2025, there were 65 active listings. One sale is pending this week in Brasada Ranch at $1,450,000, up from zero pending sales last week. Five transactions closed this week, up from zero last week, with 4 of those listings reducing their asking price by an average of 13.17% before securing a buyer. The notable sale this week was the Kerley Horse Center at $6,800,000, initially listed at $7,500,000. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio for all sales this week was 89.24%.

Continued growth in Central Oregon is maintaining stability in the luxury market, with sales price increases notable for homes listed in Deschutes County over $3 million. Crook County, led by Brasada Ranch and Powell Butte, continues strong sales activity for homes listed over $1 million. Comparable inventory levels to 2025 across the region are creating many opportunities for buyers looking to close by year-end. But steady activity in the late summer and early fall means the best properties are getting a lot of attention.

 

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For most of 2026, single-family home inventory in Central Oregon lagged behind 2025 levels, while sales volume had increased. Recently, activity has shifted, largely due to rising mortgage interest rates, with the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage today at 6.89%. Inventory is growing at a time of year when steady declines toward winter are typically the trend, while sales volume has narrowed compared with last year's totals. This is playing out to different degrees in each of Central Oregon's counties, and I will watch how it develops over the next several weeks.

Deschutes County inventory has been variable rather than peaking and following a smooth decline towards year-end, with today’s level at 1,441, down 5 from last week. The average list price this week is $1,063,072 compared to $1,162,435 this week in 2025. This week in 2025, there were 1,391 listings. Seventy-six pending sales are up by 5 from last week, with 38 of those properties decreasing the asking price by an average of 7.16% before securing a buyer, and an average pending sale price of $866,907. Fifty-two closed transactions this week are down by 36 from last week, with 27 of those listings reducing the asking price by an average of 7.05% before securing a buyer. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 94.01%.

In Crook County, this week’s supply is 264, up 7 from last week. The average list price this week is $911,628 compared to $958,152 this week in 2025. This week in 2025, there were 243 listings. Six pending sales are down 4 from last week, with 1 of those properties reducing the asking price by 1.39% before securing a buyer and an average pending sale price of $406,650. Eight closed transactions this week are double last week’s total, with 6 of those listings reducing the asking price by an average of 5.2% before securing a buyer. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 93.84%.

This week’s inventory in Jefferson County is down by 1 to 154. The average list price this week is $599,765 compared to $583,326 this week in 2025. This week in 2025, there were 133 listings. Three pending sales are down 1 from last week, with 1 of those properties reducing the asking price by 1.49% before securing a buyer and an average pending sale price of $386,283. Two transactions closed this week, down from 5 last week, with 1 of those listings reducing the asking price by 2.7% before securing a buyer. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 97.31%.

While this week's numbers show signs of a slightly shifting market, the average sale price is up year over year across all three counties of Central Oregon. Sales volume is very close to 2025 year-to-date numbers, with lots of time left this year for sales to catch up. The biggest takeaway from this week's numbers is that the market is adjusting to higher mortgage rates, with some buyers pulling back a bit to recalibrate. Our market isn’t falling, but deals are available, and many sellers are motivated to secure a buyer before year-end. A lower sale price could largely offset higher mortgage rates, and the market definitely deserves a close look.

 

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It’s hard to believe it is the Labor Day weekend, which marks the unofficial end of summer in Central Oregon and the beginning of the last busy period for the real estate market before the holiday season. Activity in the luxury market is down slightly this week as people focus on the long weekend, though a few bright spots remain. Mortgage rates are continuing to climb, with the national average for a 30-year Jumbo loan at 7.06%, up from 6.40% this day in 2025. Inventory is down in all tranches over this week in 2025, with the lone exceptions of Deschutes County homes over $3 million and Crook County farm listings over $1 million.

Deschutes County listings between $1 million and $1,999,999 are down 4 to 368 this week. Two hundred fourteen of the active listings have reduced the asking price by an average of 8.14%. Eight listings are pending this week, half of last week’s total, with 3 of those properties reducing the asking price by an average of 10.1% before securing a contract. Closed transactions are down 2 from last week, with 8 of those properties reducing the asking price by an average of 8.36% before securing a buyer. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 90.3%, with the average sold price per square foot at $480.

Listings in Deschutes County between $2 million and $2,999,999 are flat this week at 73, with 31 of those properties reducing the asking price by an average of 8.89%. Three pending sales, up from zero last week, show that buyers are still out there. One pending transaction reduced the asking price by 4.01% before securing a contract. Three closed transactions match last week’s volume, with 1 listing reducing the asking price by 3.34% before securing a buyer. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 97.09%, with the average sold price per square foot at $796.

Supply of luxury homes in Deschutes County over $3 million increased by 2 this week to 40, with 19 of those listings reducing the asking price by an average of 13.12%. Two pending sales match last week’s activity, with one listing reducing the asking price by 3.82% before securing a buyer. One pending sale was in Caldera Springs, listed at $3,150,000, and the other was on Wild Rye Circle in North Rim. The Wild Rye Circle listing was originally listed for $3,275,000, then $3,150,000, before securing a contract. No transactions closed this week.

Don’t let the lull in activity this week fool you; we are entering the busiest time for Central Oregon housing, particularly for the luxury markets. However, higher and increasing mortgage rates could have an impact. Still, transaction volume is up slightly from 2025, as is the average sale price. The increases are incremental, but this marks the third consecutive year of increases since activity dropped after the market peaked in 2022. Measured against inflation, the increases in the median sale price are not very impressive. But growth in Central Oregon continues, and buyers are moving on desirable properties. Fall is the best time of year for buyers to negotiate a deal and for sellers to sharpen their pencils to secure a year-end closing. No matter which side of a transaction you are on, I am available to help, starting with a comprehensive market analysis. Reach out anytime!

 

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Activity in the Central Oregon housing market remains steady this week, despite a surge in mortgage interest rates of 16 basis points since last week. That national average for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage today is 6.91%. On this day in 2025, rates were 6.53%, and the consensus at the time was that rates in 2026 would be lower. Still, transaction volume is slightly up from 2025, as is the average sale price. After several weeks of fluctuating inventory, Deschutes and Crook County supplies are down this week, while Jefferson County supply is up by one. With rain in the forecast over the next few days, the weather and the real estate market are beginning to feel like fall.

Deschutes County inventory fell by 6 this week to 1,446, with 853 active listings reducing their asking prices by an average of 6.44%. Seventy-one pending sales match last week's total, with 42 (43 last week) of those listings reducing the asking price by an average of 5.83%. Eighty-eight closed transactions are up 22 from last week, with 45 of those listings reducing the asking price an average of 5.7% before securing a buyer. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 95.4%, and the average sold price per square foot was $392.

Crook County inventory fell by 11 this week to 257, with 145 active listings reducing their asking prices by an average of 7.04%. Ten pending sales this week are up 3 from last week, with 6 of those listings reducing their asking prices by an average of 5.94% before securing a contract. Four closed transactions match last week’s total, and all of those listings reduced their asking price by an average of 3.786% before securing a contract. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 94.31%, and the average sold price per square foot was $312.

Jefferson County supply is up 1 from last week to 155, with 78 of those listings decreasing the asking price by an average of 6.04%. Pending transactions are up 1 from last week to 4, with 2 of those listings reducing the asking price by an average of 9.15% before securing a contract. Five closed transactions are down by 2 from last week, with 1 of those transactions reducing the asking price an aggressive 18.33% before securing a buyer. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 92.19%, and the average sold price per square foot was $262.

Rising mortgage interest rates are putting pressure on buyers at a time when the overall market was beginning to move slightly in buyers' favor. The data shows sellers are doing what they can to draw in buyers and secure sales before year-end, and I expect that trend to continue. Whether mortgage interest rates remain elevated is anyone’s guess, but some relief from rising rates could create a surge in activity with plenty of time left in the season. I encourage buyers to stay in contact with their lender, or reach out if you need a referral. Locking in if rates dip might be a wise decision if buying this fall is part of your plan.

 

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Your Bend Real Estate Agent is here to help

Reed Melton serves Bend and surrounding areas

Whether you are searching in Bend or any of the nearby areas, I want to help you find the perfect property. Even if you are in the beginning stages of your search, I always like to be a resource, no pressure ever.

Ask a QuestionI need to sell my homeCall Me

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