My Weekly Central Oregon Real Estate Blog

Inventory in Central Oregon naturally declines seasonally, with the tipping point typically occurring in August. The steady reduction in supply appeared to begin this year, but this week several segments of the luxury market saw slight increases. Small ups and downs before the decline towards winter are not unheard of, but the more inventory is carried into spring, the more it impacts next year's market. Today, there aren’t any significant signs of a market shift, and 2026 looks set to outpace 2025 in sales. Still, some market segments are feeling the effects of increased competition, along with longer marketing cycles before securing a sale. Whether these are emerging trends or short-term anomalies remains to be seen, but I will continue tracking the data and watching for early indications of a market shift.

The Deschutes County supply of homes listed between $1 million and $1,999,999 increased by 4 this week to 365. Sixteen pending sales occurred this week, up by one from last week. However, last week’s report was one day shorter, coming out Thursday, making this week’s report one day longer. Fourteen transactions closed this week, down 4 from last week, with an average sale price of $1,170,194, skewing lower in the price tranche than in past weeks. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 93.81%, also lower than in past weeks. As we get later into the summer, sellers are more inclined to negotiate, and sales data from the past several months shows prices are flat, benefiting buyers.

Single-family homes in Dechutes County listed between $2 million and $2,999,999 also increased this week, up 6 to 84. One sale is pending in Northwest Crossing at $2,298,500 after 58 days on the market. Two transactions closed this week: one in Caldera Springs at $2,180,000 for 91.1% of the original list price, and a full-price sale in Tetherow at $2,675,000.

Deschutes County homes listed over $3 million decreased by 1 to 40 this week. One pending sale occurred in Deschutes River Ranch at $3,999,000, after 89 days on the market. However, this property expired after 435 days on the market last year, listed at $4,345,000, originally listed at $4,750,000. One transaction closed this week in Tetherow at $3,824,000, originally listed at $3,850,000, then raised to $3,899,000. This Tetherow transaction was listed for 199 days.

Crook County listings over $1 million increased by 3 this week to 72. One sale is pending in Powell Butte at $1,299,000. One transaction closed this week in Powell Butte for $1,000,000 after 524 days on the market. The original list price was $1,195,000, and it was decreased to $1,100,000, making the sale at 83.68% of the original list price.

Buyers and sellers are still finding common ground in today’s market, despite some tension, and sales are on pace to end the year higher than in 2025. How much of this tension survives the winter and shows up in the spring remains to be seen. But from today’s vantage point, 2027 is shaping up to look very similar to 2026. I don’t anticipate a significant change to mortgage rates next year, leaving inventory levels as the wild card. Of course, a lot can happen over the next several months. In the meantime, market analysis and price considerations for both buyers and sellers are more important than ever. Overpriced listings are seeing extended marketing times, and educated buyers are searching for the best properties at the best prices. Please reach out if you would benefit from a personalized analysis to get a clearer picture of today's housing market.

 

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If I were asked to pick a phrase to describe this week’s activity in Central Oregon, I would choose ho-hum. The housing market is chugging along, with nothing particularly noteworthy and steady activity as we have seen all year. The national average for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage today is 6.74%, down a few basis points from recent highs, but still operating within a range consistent with the past several months. Inventory is holding up quite well, considering we have reached the turning point for the year.

Today in Deschutes County, supply is flat from last week at 1,439. Eighty-one pending sales are up by 3 from last week, with the average list price at $867,674. Forty-seven of the pending sales reduced the asking price an average of 6.63% before securing a contract. Sixty-two closed transactions are down 16 from last week, the lowest closing number since May. The average sold price was $852,001, with 37 of those listings reducing the asking price by an average of 7.57% before securing a buyer. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 94%.

Crook County supply is down by 3 from last week to 261. Three pending sales are 7 fewer than last week, with all three of those listings reducing the asking price an average of 2.65% before securing a buyer. Only one of the pending sales was in Prineville, a home in the Crystal Springs subdivision listed at $644,900. The other two pending sales were in Powell Butte: a home on Sego Lily Road listed at $895,000, and the 897-acre Kerley Horse Center on Cornett Loop listed at $7,750,000. Eight transactions closed this week, down by 4 from last week, with 2 of those listings reducing the asking price by 9.64% before securing a buyer. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 92.21%.

In Jefferson County, supply increased by 2 this week to 153, after spending three consecutive weeks at 151. Five pending sales occurred, with four of those listings reducing the asking price by an average of 1.23% before securing a contract. The average list price of the pending sales was $346,650, with all five of those transactions priced below $400k. Six closed transactions are down by 2 from last week, with 4 of those listings reducing the asking price by an average of 0.23% before securing a buyer. The average sale price was $547,400, with the sold-to-original-list-price ratio at 105.21%.

Sellers have been reducing asking prices to lure in buyers, but at the lower price points, many are already at rock-bottom prices for the market. This is reflected in the low percentage decreases in price changes, and particularly in Jefferson County, a final sale price above the original asking price. In contrast, in Deschutes County, this week, a 94% sold-to-original-list-price ratio shows sellers working with buyers to make sales happen. Neither of these numbers is far from expected ranges for the time of year, and certainly doesn’t reveal anything more than stable, steady market conditions. I read a lot of speculation about a falling market based on price reductions, which is not accurate. Sales prices have remained stable since the high point in 2022, if not slightly up.

 

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On this special Thursday edition of the Central Oregon Luxury Market Report, all segments of the luxury market had a decrease in inventory. Peak supply is in the rearview mirror, and inventory will continue the steady decline to winter. Sellers are, in many cases, adjusting prices, and buyers motivated to make a purchase this year are stepping up. While mortgage interest rates are up a few basis points from this time last year, the overall dynamic very slightly favors buyers. For the third consecutive year, prices are mostly flat from the peak of 2022, but desirable properties in great locations are outpacing the broader market. The market dynamics are as interesting as they are varied!

Deschutes County single-family listings between $1 million and $1,999,999 are down by 6 from last week to 361. Pending sales are at 15, a decrease of 4 from last week. But with one less day in this reporting cycle, consistency is king here. Eleven of the pending sales decreased the listing price by an average of 8.48%. Eighteen closed transactions are up 3 from last week, with 10 of those listings decreasing the asking price by an average of 5.55% before securing a buyer. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 95.39%.

Listings in the county between $2 million and $2,999,999 decreased by 4 to 78 this week. Three sales are pending: $2,950,000 on Hosmer Lake Drive in Tetherow, $2,499,000 on Pacific Heights Road off OB Reilly Road, and $2,395,000 on Puccoon Court in North Rim. One transaction closed this week on Awbrey Butte at $2,442,000, after just 11 days listed, and at 97.72% of the asking price.

The Deschutes County active listings over $3 million decreased by 2 this week to 41. No pending sales occurred this week. Two transactions closed this week at $3,200,000 on Sparrow Hawk Circle in Shevlin Commons, and at $3,875,000 on Hardin Martin Court in Tetherow. The Sparrow Hawk Circle property closed at full price, while Hardin Martin Court was originally listed at $4 million.

Crook County listings over $1 million are down by 4 from last week to 69. Two sales are pending: $1,575,000 in Brasada Ranch, and $7,750,000 in Powell Butte, the 897-acre Kerley Horse Center, with an 89,000-square-foot equestrian center. One transaction closed at $1,259,000 on 120 acres, near the Prineville reservoir, at 81.23% of the original list price.

There haven’t been many “big” weeks of activity in the luxury market in 2026, but steady sales have actually brought us past the 2025 levels year-to-date. Overall, buyers have more time to consider many of the options available. However, desirable properties are still selling quickly, with many barely breaking into double-digit days on the market. With the last couple of months of warm weather ahead of us, many properties that have been listed through the summer, and in some cases since last fall, will begin to move. Supply this year never reached 2025 levels, and shrinking inventory levels now leave fewer options for buyers motivated to purchase this year.

 

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The national average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage today is 6.75%, only several basis points higher than this time last year. Supply in Central Oregon is declining this week in Deschutes and Crook Counties, and flat in Jefferson County, as we have reached the seasonal tipping point in inventory growth for 2026. Activity remains steady this week, as expected for what is consistently the busiest time of the year. Thankfully, the major fire threats in Central Oregon are largely under control, even though there is plenty of fire season left before we can expect moisture that will help tamp down the risk.

Deschutes County inventory of single-family homes decreased by 16 to 1,439 today. Seventy-eight pending sales are down by 13 from last week, with the average list price of these transactions at $854,784. Seventy-eight closed transactions are down 2 from last week, with the average sale price at $1,093,060. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 96.82%.

Supply in Crook County decreased by 4 to 264 today. Ten pending sales are double last week's total, with the average list price of these transactions at $1,575,480. Twelve closed transactions are triple last week's total, with the average sale price at $545,250. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 92.67%.

For the third consecutive week, inventory in Jefferson County is stuck at 151. Three pending sales this week are 2 fewer than last week, with the average list price of these transactions at $826,317. Eight closed transactions this week are up by 5 from last week, with the average sale price at $387,403. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 98.99%.

Notable this week across all Central Oregon Counties is the higher sold-to-original-list-price ratio and strong activity in higher price points. It is not unusual for home sales over $1 million to pick up in the second half of the year, and this year appears to be consistent with that trend. As inventory declines, buyers begin to take action after spending the first half of the year evaluating the market. Sellers also have the benefit of first-half-of-the-year sales to make price corrections, and closer-to-list-price deals become more commonplace. Nobody expected mortgage interest rates to be at the level they are today, but rates are still very close to last year’s level. Stability is the key to today’s activity.

 

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On this last day of July 2026, the economic data is mixed, while housing activity in Central Oregon is stable. In the most recent Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting, 9 of the 3 Fed Officers voted to keep rates where they have been since January. However, after 5 years of inflation holding above the Fed’s 2% target, the 3 dissenting votes in the Fed meeting wanted a 25 basis point increase to help tamp down inflation.

With 2nd Quarter 2026 GDP at 1.5%, and the most recent CPI report showing inflation at 3.5%, it is difficult to see any of this as overwhelmingly positive. Still, sales in the luxury market are outpacing last year, with Deschutes County sales over $1 million at 488 (468 in 2025 YTD) and the average sale at $1,615,570, up $7,126 from 2025. In Crook County, 2026 YTD sales are at 29 (22 in 2025 YTD) and average $1552,905, down $20,854 from 2025. While prices remain flat, transactions have steadily increased since the low in 2023.

Supply today in Deschutes County between $1 million and $1,999,999 is down by 6 from last week to 367. Nineteen pending sales are up 9 from last week; 12 of those listings reduced the asking price by an average of 8.3% before securing a buyer. Sixty-three percent of the pending sales reducing the asking price is notable. Fifteen closed transactions this week are down by 6 from last week, with six of those listings reducing the asking price by an average of 8.29%, and a sold-to-original-list-price ratio of 93.86%.

Deschutes County listings between $2 million and $2,999,999 are at 82 today, down by 7 from last week. Pending sales are identical to last week at 5, with all five of those listings reducing the asking price by an average of 4.09%. Six closed transactions are double last week, with three of those listings reducing the asking price by an average of 4.04%, and the sold-to-original-list-price ratio for all sales at 95.54%.

Crook County listings over $1 million are also stable this week at 73. Two sales are pending at $1,575,000 and $2,895,000, both in Brasada Ranch—the listing under contract at $1,575,000 originally listed at $1,850,000. No transactions closed this week.

Deschutes County farm listings over 41 million are stable at 14 and have had six consecutive weeks with no pending or closed transactions. Crook County farm listings over 41 million are up by one to 20, with no pending or closed transactions. In Crook County, there are a handful of large acreage listings broken into multiple listings, making it appear there are more individual properties listed than is actually the case. Breaking up some of these properties that have more than one tax lot is a solid strategy, but there remains very little activity in the Central Oregon farm segment.

The data this week shows flat to decreasing inventory in all segments except Crook County farm listings. This could very well mean the peak supply for the luxury market was in the last couple of weeks. The biggest price drops and seller negotiations are happening in the lower price tiers, with the higher end of the market able to secure prices closer to the listing price. Now is the time of year that buyers start acting in earnest on properties in the luxury market since the supply of enticing new listings is tightening up. If there is anything I can help you with in the Central Oregon market, please let me know!

 

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Thankfully, firefighters throughout Central Oregon have made significant progress on the different fires burning throughout the region. Everyone is grateful for their hard work during this extremely dry summer. If you’d like a concise daily summary of the activity, go to www.centraloregonfire.org.

The real estate market is steady, as expected for this busy time of year. The national average for a 30-year conventional mortgage today is 6.78%, down a few basis points from recent highs. Undoubtedly, fires and higher rates have slowed some activity in areas impacted by fires, and among all interest rate-sensitive buyers. Still, the market moves on. Inventory levels are mostly flat from last week as we approach the time of year when supply will turn and start the steady decline toward winter.

Deschutes County inventory today is 1,455, down by 5 from last week. Pending sales took a healthy jump to 91, which is up 20 from last week. Fifty-one of the pending sales reduced the asking price by an average of 6.32% before securing a contract. Eighty closed transactions this week are up by 2 from last week, with a closed-to-original-list-price ratio of 96.23%.

Crook County supply increased by 3 this week to 268. Pending sales are flat at five this week, with 4 of those listings reducing the asking price by an average of 4.56% before securing a contract. Closed transactions this week are down by 3 to 4, with a closed-to-original-list-price ratio of 93.96%.

Jefferson County inventory is flat this week at 151. Pending sales are down by 4 to 5, with 2 of those listings reducing the asking price by an average of 2.93% before securing a contract. Three closed transactions this week are down by 10, with a closed-to-original-list-price ratio of 94.26%.

Fires have heavily impacted both Jefferson and Crook County over the last several days, but both still show reasonable pending sale activity. Most of the fire activity in Deschutes County has been centered just north of Sisters, with most of the rest of the county unaffected at the moment. At the Fed meeting today, Chair Kevin Warsh held rates, which was broadly expected. All of this is setting up a predictable late summer and fall for Central Oregon housing.

 

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Unfortunately, we are back in the middle of fire season, with another large fire burning just north of Sisters. By all accounts, the firefighters are making progress, but this has become an unwelcome annual event. In the financial news, bond yields are rising, and the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage is 6.81%, with the Jumbo rate at 6.9%. Both of these developments are likely to create some headwinds, but to date, the market has largely shrugged off the higher-than-expected mortgage rates this year.

Interestingly, the supply of Deschutes County homes between $1 million and $1,999,999 increased by 7 this week to 373. This is not unheard of at this time of year, but it appears to be due to only 10 pending sales this week, down by 8 from last week. Four of the pending sales reduced the asking price by an average of 10.92% before securing a contract. Weekly variations mean very little, and current mortgage rates may be playing a role. I will be watching this closely to see if this becomes a trend. Twenty-one transactions closed this week, up by one from last week. Nine of those listings reduced the asking price by an average of 5.64% before securing a contract. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio this week was 95%.

Deschutes County supply between $2 million and $2,999,999 decreased by 2 this week to 89. Five sales are pending, down by one from last week, with only one of those listings reducing the asking price by 6.78% before securing a contract. Three transactions closed this week, with two of those listings reducing the asking price an average of 4.27% before securing a buyer. One of the sales closed at 2.92% under the asking price, another closed at full price, and the last at 2.92% above the asking price, with zero days listed.

Deschutes County Farm listings are stable this week at 14, with no pending or closed transactions. Crook County Farm listings are down by one to 19, due to a pending transaction for $2,250,000 in Powell Butte. The original list price was $2,950,000. There are undoubtedly some very interesting, legacy properties in the Central Oregon Farm listings, but many of these properties come with a lot of work to maintain. There are also some very large acreage properties available, and an example is the Wolf Creek listing at $54 million and 35,132 acres!

Despite some challenges in the overall market, Central Oregon housing continues marching along. In the national market, there is talk of increased inventory, which is not the case in Central Oregon. Our supply has been down all year compared to 2025, which was a welcome increase from lows established over the past several years. Still, there is a certain amount of momentum at this time of year, and many buyers have worked all season to learn the market with plans to purchase by winter. There is still a lot of activity ahead of us, and many compelling properties are listed. Whatever your needs, I am always available to help you sort through the options.

 

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Housing supply in Central Oregon is beginning to fluctuate as we approach the point in the season when inventory begins a steady decline toward winter. Activity remains steady, and we are in the midst of one of the busiest times of the season. However, the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage today is at 6.75%, the highest since July 2025. The borrowing cost pressure on buyers is bound to have an impact as we navigate the busy time between now and Labor Day. After the September holiday, activity remains high well into October, and potentially even through the first half of November, depending on weather. Still, year-to-date activity is slightly ahead of 2025, continuing the steady increase in sales since activity dropped in 2023 when mortgage interest rates began rising.

Today in Deschutes County, there are 1,460 listings, down by 6 from last week. The average list price is $1,096,897, and 799 of those listings have decreased their asking price by an average of 5.78%. Seventy-one sales are pending, down by 13 from last week, with 33 of those listings reducing the asking price an average of 6.05% before securing a contract. Seventy-eight transactions closed this week, up by ten from last week, with 37 of those listings reducing the asking price by an average of 6.33% before securing a buyer. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio this week was 95.5%.

Crook County supply increased this week by 6 to 265 single-family homes listed. The average list price is $1,092,134, with 147 of those listings reducing the asking price by an average of 6.71%. Five sales are pending, down by 7 from last week, with 4 reducing the asking price by an average of 7.78% before securing a contract. Seven transactions closed this week, up by 4 from last week, with 5 reducing the asking price by a significant 16.17% before securing a buyer. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 83.68% for the week, considerably lower than the typical weekly closed price ratio.

Jefferson County inventory decreased by 7 this week to 151, with 80 of those listings reducing the asking price by an average of 5.45%. The average list price of the active inventory is $604,700. Nine sales are pending, up by 5 from last week, with 4 of those listings decreasing the asking price an average of 1.9%. Thirteen transactions closed this week, up by 8 from last week, with 5 reducing the asking price by an average of 5.72% before securing a buyer. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 97.53% this week.

Sales prices since the peak in 2022 have remained stable and are very close to last year's numbers. It would be easy to assume that the price reductions before finding buyers, combined with a less-than-100 % final sale price, mean prices are falling, which is not the case. Increased competition in some price segments forces sellers to be realistic about today’s market price, but most of the reductions seen are simply bringing prices in line with the level seen over the last few years. It isn’t uncommon for sellers to try and test the market, then adjust down based on feedback and sales activity. Considering the higher borrowing costs buyers are facing, sellers, by comparison, are doing well, and the overall market is stable.

 

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With only eight additional listings this week across the entire Central Oregon market above $1 million, we are very near peak inventory for 2026. Activity remains steady, if not up in some price tranches. Typically, the luxury market is more active in the second half of the year, with the first half dedicated primarily to adding listings and buyers researching the market. With year-to-date sales up slightly from last year, volume appears poised to exceed 2025 levels, marking the third consecutive year of sales growth since activity dropped in 2023. However, the year-over-year growth has been incremental and remains lower than during the period leading up to the 2020 boom.

The Deschutes County inventory between $1 million and $1,999,999 is up 6 this week to 366. Eighteen pending sales are an increase of 5 from last week, with 6 of those listings reducing the asking price by an average of 6.31% before securing a contract. Twenty closed transactions this week are double last week's number, with 6 reducing the asking price by an average of 4.43% before securing a buyer, and an average sold-to-original-list-price ratio of 96.85%.

Luxury homes in Deschutes County listed between $2 million and $2,999,999 are flat this week at 91. Six pending sales are double last week’s volume, with 4 of those listings reducing the asking price by an average of 6.2%. One transaction closed this week at $2,375,000 on Awbrey Butte for 95.96% of the original list price.

Homes listed over $3 million in Deschutes County increased by 2 from last week to 42. Three pending sales are down by 1 from last week, with 2 of those listings reducing their asking prices by an average of 7.31%. One transaction closed this week at $3,045,000 on Pee Wee Court in Northwest Bend, following a 14% price reduction, and a sold-to-original-list-price ratio of 87.02%.

Crook County listings over $1 million are flat this week at 70. One sale is pending in Powell Butte at $1,100,000 after a 7.95% price reduction and 524 days on the market. One transaction closed this week at $1,745,000 in Brasada Ranch after a 2.97% price reduction. and for 94.32% of the original list price.

Dechutes County and Crook County farm listings are both flat at 14 and 20, respectively, with no pending or closed transactions in either county over the past several weeks. Farm activity in Central Oregon is stagnant, with average days listed at 241 for Deschutes County and 272 for Crook County.

Year-to-date sales over $1 million in Deschutes County in 2025 were 427 compared to 559 so far in 2026. In Crook County, year-to-date sales in 2025 were 20 compared to 26 so far this year. With steady activity and the busiest time of year approaching, now is the time for buyers to act on appealing properties. With many sellers adjusting prices to take advantage of the season, there is no guarantee the home you are looking at today will be available tomorrow.

 

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Activity is picking up again after the holiday weekend, with the busiest time of year ahead. Inventory growth is slowing, and before long, supply will begin tapering towards the fall and winter. This can be a make-or-break time for both buyers and sellers. For buyers, missing out on a property that fits their needs leaves fewer and fewer options, while sellers not positioned correctly on price can miss out on buyers ready to take action. Whatever your goals in real estate this year, now is the time to put in the effort to make them come to fruition.

Supply in Deschutes County increased by 30 this week to 1,466, a generous bump after the holiday lull. Eighty-four pending sales are up by 7 from last week, with 35 of those listings reducing their asking price by an average of 7.7%. Sellers who are proactive in correcting prices are being rewarded with contracts. Sixty-eight closed transactions this week are up by 4 from last week, with 24 of those listings reducing the asking price by 6.32% before securing a contract. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 96.5%.

Crook County's supply this week is the same as last week at 259. Pending sales increased significantly from 2 last week to 12 this week. Eight of the pending sales reduced their asking prices by an average of 8.82%, indicating that price reductions are paying off for sellers. Three transactions closed this week, down from 8 last week, with a strong sold-to-original-list-price ratio of 97.6%.

Jefferson County inventory has been up all year over 2025, and increased by 4 this week to 158. Four pending sales this week are down one from last week, with three of those listings reducing the asking price by an average of 6.87% before securing a buyer. Five closed transactions are down 2 from last week, with a sold-to-original-list-price ratio of 89.02%. Increased supply in Jefferson County has increased competition, benefiting buyers.

Sellers who have been on the market for a while now have the benefit of first-half activity to gauge where they should be priced. Unless a seller is willing to ride out the market through winter, now is the time to adjust. Personally, I am a believer of fewer, larger price decreases than many smaller adjustments, but as always, this is a case-by-case analysis. Mortgage interest rates are stable at 6.64% this week for the national average of a 30-year fixed-rate conventional loan. While higher rates have kept activity in check, stability has made planning and budgeting more straightforward for buyers. Please reach out if you need a comprehensive analysis of your real estate options in Central Oregon.

 

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