My Weekly Central Oregon Real Estate Blog

While mortgage rates may be stuck as we head into the busy fall season, activity remains steady, and the market is stable. On Wednesday, I reported year-over-year sales increases for the broader market, and today I will break down year-over-year sales by luxury price tranches. You will see in the data below that our market remains stable, a pattern that has been consistent throughout the higher-mortgage-interest-rate climate that began in the third quarter of 2022. Population growth in Central Oregon continues, along with buyer demand, despite higher financing costs.

Today in Deschutes County, listings between $1 million and $1,999,999 are up by 9 from last week to 360. Thirteen sales are pending, up by 2 from last week, with 5 of those listings reducing the asking price by an average of 11.59% before securing a buyer. Ten transactions closed this week, down from 21 the previous week. Four of the closed transactions this week reduced the asking price by an average of 10.67% before securing a contract, with the sold-to-original-list-price ratio at 94.52%.

Year-to-date in 2025, there were 359 sales, averaging $1,374,176, compared to 364 so far in 2026, averaging $1,356,024. For these narrow price bands, the average sale is less relevant and isn’t necessarily indicative of a softening market.

Deschutes County listings between $2 million and $2,999,999 increased by 3 from last week to 91. Three sales are pending, up by 2 from last week, with 2 of those listings reducing the asking price by an average of 3.9% before securing a buyer. One transaction closed this week in Tetherow for $2,660,000 after only four days on the market, at 104.31% of the list price.

Homes for sale in Deschutes County over $3 million increased by 2 from last week to 40. Four sales are pending this week, double last week’s volume, with three in Tetherow and one in Caldera Springs. No transactions closed this week.

2025 year-to-date activity over $3 million shows 20 transactions averaging $3,501,900 compared to 14 averaging $4,318,218 so far in 2026. There is no question that desirable high-end properties are commanding high prices this year. I anticipate the sales volume gap narrowing as the remainder of the 2026 selling season plays out.

Crook County inventory over $1 million is stable this week at 70. No sales are pending, and there were no closed transactions this week.

The Deschutes County farm listings over 41 million are stable at 14, with no pending or closed transactions for the third consecutive week. Year-to-date 2025, there were 2 sales at $1.45 million and $3.2 million, compared to 2 sales so far in 2026 at $1.375 million and $4.25 million.

Crook County farm listings over $1 million are also steady at 20, with no pending or closed transactions for the eighth consecutive week. Year-to-date 2025 shows no closed transactions for this segment, compared to 2 sales this year at $1.1 million and $2.165 million so far in 2026.

There is a baseline level of activity in Central Oregon at today’s mortgage interest rates, consistent for the past four years. While our overall transaction volume might be down from the highs experienced between 2020 and 2022, the market remains steady. Market conditions have made pricing clear, and buyers are not paying up for homes. Still, desirable homes are selling in single-digit days on the market, for full price or more. With the busy late summer, early fall season at hand, now is the time to act quickly for buyers who find the right property. And sellers who have been on the market for some time would do well to adjust their pricing to position themselves for a sale this year.

 

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As expected, activity this week is down from the previous week, due to the long holiday weekend. However, the time between now and Labor Day, and through October, can be one of the busiest stretches of the year. The only thing to be said about mortgage rates is that they are stable, and stability is good. Inventory will begin to decline toward winter over the next few weeks, with many sellers lowering their asking prices and positioning themselves for a sale before the end of the year.

Supply in Deschutes County is up by 16 from last week, now at 1,436. This week in 2025, there were 1,575 listings, with a year-over-year inventory deficit that remained consistent throughout the first half of 2026. Seventy-seven sales are pending this week, down by 7 from last week, with 31 of those listings reducing the asking price by an average of 4.75% before securing a buyer. Sixty-four transactions closed this week, down by 59 from last week. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 96.5%.

Crook County inventory increased by 10 this week to 259 listings, up from 244 on this week in 2025. Two sales are pending this week, down from 13 last week, with both listings reducing their asking prices before finding a buyer. Eight transactions closed this week, 3 more than last week, with the sold-to-original-list-price ratio at 95.08%.

In Jefferson County, supply is up by one from last week to 154, compared to 120 this week in 2025. Jefferson County stands alone in Central Oregon with increased inventory. Five pending sales are down by four from last week, with three of those sales reducing the asking price an average of 5.42% before securing a buyer. Seven closed transactions are down by two from last week, with a sold-to-original-list-price ratio of 94.22%.

The year-over-year consistency in single-family home sales in Central Oregon is notable, especially considering the difference in supply levels. The stability of mortgage interest rates creates highly predictable conditions for buyers at a time when prices are generally declining. All indications point towards a year with sales volume equal to, if not greater than, that of 2025. However, since the market peaked in 2022, volume and prices have remained stable. One word sums up our housing market for the last few years: “consistent.

 

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Happy Fourth of July! With the long weekend beginning today, the official kick-off to summer begins. I have been talking about the transition from growing inventory to the decline in supply towards fall for a few weeks now, and that is beginning to show in the data. All price tranches over $1 million in Deschutes County are down or unchanged from last week. However, Crook County inventory in residences and farms listed over $1 million increased. It is common for supply numbers to bounce around before shrinking, which they will do in the next couple of weeks.

Supply in Deschutes County between $1 million and $1,999,999 decreased for the third consecutive week to 351. Production was down this week as most buyers are in vacation mode for the holiday. Eleven pending sales this week are down from 24 last week, with 5 of those listings reducing the asking price by an average of 5.84% before securing a buyer. Twenty-one closed transactions are down 3 from last week, with a sold-to-original-sales-price ratio of 95.34%.

Deschutes County single-family listings between $2 million and $2,999,999 are unchanged from last week at 88. One pending sale occurred this week at $2,995,000 on Deer Ridge Road in Sisters, originally listed at $3.2M after 99 days on the market. Three transactions closed this week: the first at $2,055,000 in Caldera Springs, the second at $2,750,000 0n Swalley Road in Tumalo, and the last at $2,795,000 on Theater Drive on the Deschutes River in Bend. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 95.19%.

The inventory over $3 million in Deschutes County is down by 2 from last week to 38. Two sales are pending, the first at $4,250,000 on Cartwright Court in Tetherow, and the second, an incredibly unique location right on the Deschutes River at $9,995,000. One transaction closed at $5,125,000 on MacAlpine Loopp in the Highlands at Broken Top after 1,133 days on the market, and for 38.73% of the original list price. This was unquestionably a big week for the top tier of the Central Oregon Luxury Market!

While Deschutes County luxury inventory is in decline, Crook County listings are increasing. This shows that the two neighboring counties have their own trends, but it won’t be long before Crook County's supply begins its downward slide towards fall. It typically takes a week after the Fourth of July holiday before production increases back to pre-holiday levels. Based on recent data, I anticipate a busy summer and fall, possibly making up the gap between 2026 and 2025 before the year ends.

Happy 250th Fourth of July! 

 

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Today marks the start of the third quarter of 2026, and the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 6.65%. Mortgage rates are following a very narrow range, and trending down slightly since hitting a high of 6.75% on May 19. Supply in both Crook and Jefferson counties declined slightly this week, while Deschutes County continued to experience a modest increase. The big news this week is a massive increase in sold transaction volume in Deschuyes County heading into the Fourth of July holiday weekend.

Today in Deschutes County, inventory levels increased by 10 from last week to 1,420. Eighty-four pending sales are up 10 from last week, averaging $807,268, and 35 of those transactions have had their list prices reduced by an average of 6.45% before securing a contract. The big news today is the 123 closed transactions this week, double last week's volume. The average sale price was $954,538, with 44 transactions reducing the list price before securing a buyer, for an average of 7.02%. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 95.87%.

Crook County supply dropped by 1 from last week to 249. Thirteen sales are pending this week, compared to 7 last week, averaging $660,984, and 9 have reduced the asking price by an average of 8.8% before securing a buyer. Five transactions closed this week, up 2 from last week. The average sale price was $598,000, with 4 of those transactions reducing the asking price before securing a buyer, an average of 10.39%. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 90.76%

Inventory in Jefferson County decreased by 4 from last week to 153. Nine sales are pending this week, averaging $497,311, and 4 of those listings have reduced their asking prices by an average of 10.87% before securing a buyer. Nine transactions closed this week, averaging $545,029, with 1 listing reducing the asking price by 3.35% before securing a buyer. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 98.12%.

Typically, sales slow during the Fourth of July holiday, before picking up for one of the busiest times of year heading into Labor Day. However, the significant increase in sales volume in Deschutes County could be an early indication of increased demand as we begin the second half of 2026. Also typical of this time of year, more price decreases are rolling in as sellers try to position themselves for a sale this summer or fall. Conditions are stable, and aside from elevated mortgage interest rates, they slightly favor buyers.

I hope you and your families have a wonderful holiday full of fun and relaxation!

 

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Mortgage rates have stabilized in recent weeks, despite remaining elevated from where many anticipated they would be at this time of year. But stability in housing is good, and I anticipate a busy season from the Fourth of July through Labor Day. Inventory levels are following slightly different trajectories between the different price tranches, but we are quickly approaching peak levels for the year. This is a busy time of year for me, and I sent this report on Thursday. I was on jury duty yesterday, so I moved this report to Saturday, adding 2 extra days to the reporting interval.

Today, in the Deschutes County $1 million to $1,999,999 price tranche, there are 356 single-family listings, down by 2 from last week. Twenty-four sales are pending this week, up by two from last week. But last week's reporting interval was a day shorter, while this week's is a day longer, so the adjusted volume is nearly the same. Twenty-four transactions closed this week, up from 13 the previous week. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 95.76%.

Deschutes County single-family listings between $2 million and $2,999,999 are up by 1 from last week to 88. Two sales are pending, down by half from last week. Four transactions closed this week, up by 1 from last week, with the sold-to-original-list-price ratio at 90.62%

After a large drop in inventory for Deschutes County single-family homes priced over $3 million two weeks ago, supply is at 40 today, up 3 from last week, and down by 3 from this year's peak level. One sale is pending this week at $3,200,000 on Sparrow Hawk Circle in Shevlin Commons after only 8 days on the market. One transaction closed this week at $4,205,062 on Cartwright Court in Tetherow at full price and zero days on the market. Attractive properties are selling fast, and prices are solid in this market segment.

There are appealing properties throughout Central Oregon's luxury market, and standout listings are going quickly. Supply levels will continue to fluctuate over the next several weeks before stabilizing and eventually declining towards fall and winter. Whatever your needs in Central Oregon are, I am always available to help. 

 

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As we approach what is most likely a vacation week heading into the Fourth of July, activity is slowing somewhat. Mortgage interest rates have been more stable recently, with the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage at 6.58% today. It is very typical for the days before and after the Fourth of July to see reduced sales activity in the Central Oregon housing market, as we kick off one of the busiest times of the year. From Mid-July through Labor Day is always active, continuing through October and into the first half of November. Now is the time for sellers to evaluate price and activity, and for buyers to zero in on the right properties.

Single-family listings in Deschutes County are up by 9 from last week to 1,410. Supply growth is slowing and will begin to decline in the next few weeks. Seventy-four sales are pending, down from 91 last week. Thirty-six of the pending sales reduced the asking price by an average of 6.74% before securing a buyer. Sixty-four transactions closed this week, down from 91 last week, and the sold-to-original-list-price ratio at 95.72%.

Crook County single-family listings are at 250, identical to last week. Seven sales are pending, down by 4 from last week, with four of those listings reducing the sales price by an average of 8.27% before securing a buyer. Three transactions closed this week, down by 6 from last week, with a sold-to-original-list-price ratio of 94.98%.

Supply in Jefferson County increased by 3 this week to 157. Eight sales are pending, the same as last week, with three of those listings reducing the asking price by an average of 6.45% before securing a buyer. Nine transactions closed this week, with the sold-to-original-list-price ratio at 4.13%.

Before long, the weekly inventory levels will begin a steady decline into winter. While there is still a good volume of listings to support buyer activity, buyers will be forced to consider what is currently listed, with fewer new listings hitting the market. This dynamic typically accelerates activity as buyers step up to grab what looks good before someone else. And sellers coming to market will have fewer new listings to compete with, making their properties stand out more. While the data shows a relatively flat market, as you drill down into specific neighborhoods and price segments, there is significant variability. I am always available for a specific market analysis for any segment of the market that matters to you.

 

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With the Fourth of July just over two weeks away, we are approaching the point in the year when inventory growth slows, and the seasonal decline begins through winter and into early spring. However, from now until November also marks one of the busiest times of the year for Central Oregon real estate, as the appeal of new listings hitting the market is replaced by buyers evaluating what is available and making their move. In today’s special Thursday Luxury Market Report, the slowing of inventory growth is apparent, with some price segments actually decreasing from last week.

Today, the supply of homes in Deschutes County priced between $1 million and $1,999,999 decreased to 358, down by 13 from last Friday. Twenty-one pending sales are down 4 from last week, with 10 listings decreasing their asking prices by an average of 5.29% before securing a contract. Thirteen closed transactions are up 2 from last week, with only 2 decreasing the asking price before securing a buyer, by an average of 2.71%. The average sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 97.72%.

Supply of Deschutes County homes listed between $2 million and $2,999,999 remains stable at 87. Four sales are pending this week, with 2 reducing the asking price by an average of 4.04% before securing a contract. Three transactions closed, identical to last week, with 2 of those listings reducing the asking price by an average of 13.64% before securing a buyer. The average sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 95.22%.

Crook County listings over $1 million increased by 1 this week to 60. One pending sale at $1,795,000 in Brasada Ranch occurred after a 2.97% price reduction before securing a contract. One transaction closed this week in Powell Butte on Fleming Road at $1,558,750, 94.47% of the original list price.

Deschutes County farm listings over 41 million decreased by 1 to 14. The decrease was due to a pending sale on Ten Barr Ranch Road in Bend for $2,450,000 after only 25 days on the market. There were no closed transactions this week.

Crook County farm listings over $1 million are stable at 18 with no pending or closed transactions.

Some of the pressure from higher 10-year Treasury yields, inflation, gas prices, and the conflict in Iran has softened recently, setting the stage for improved activity in the second half of the 2026 luxury housing market. Today, the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate Jumbo mortgage is still elevated at 6.81%. Jumbo rates are slower to respond than conventional loan rates, but any downward movement would be positive as we head into the busy summer and early fall season. With lower inventory than in 2025, luxury buyers will need to work with the remaining inventory if closing in 2026 is a priority. For sellers with attractive properties, this is an opportunity to stand out with less competition. Whatever your needs, I look forward to helping you reach your goals. 

 

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While inventory is still building across much of Central Oregon, signs are emerging that the yearly transition to a shrinking supply is approaching. Typically, the definitive shift in supply occurs in late July to early August. However, this year's inventory has fallen short of 2025 levels, and the tipping point might occur sooner. Keep in mind that supply is only incrementally lower than last year, but it remains a persistent trend. The 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage today is 6.55%, down from recent highs and likely to soften further as we move into the second half of the year.

Today in Deschutes County, there are 1,401 single-family listings, a 25-unit jump from last week. 91 pending sales are up by 3 from last week, with 42 listings reducing their asking prices by an average of 5.06%. 78 transactions closed this week, the same as last week, with 23 of those listings reducing the asking price by an average of 6.51% before securing a contract. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 96.67% for the week. The median days listed for the closed transactions was a speedy 21 days.

Inventory in Crook County today is 25, up by 6 from last week. 11 sales are pending, up by 5 from last week, with 5 reducing the list price by an average of 8.8% before securing a contract. 9 transactions closed this week, down by 2 from last week, with 3 reducing the list price by an average of 8.69% before securing a buyer. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 92.54%, with a median days-on-market of 49.

Jefferson County’s supply decreased by 2, now at 154 listings. 8 pending sales this week are down by 2 from last week, with 3 of those properties changing their list prices, averaging an increase of 1.02%. 4 transactions closed this week, half of last week's volume, with 1 price change, an increase of 0.02%. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio this week was 103.01%, with a median of only 23 days on the market. Jefferson County has had the lowest price-reduction percentage among the three Central Oregon counties in 2026 to date.

With the Fourth of July only a couple of weeks away, we are unquestionably in the peak season for housing in Central Oregon. 2026 might not be as busy as expected, but sales have been consistent, and most sellers are maintaining or exceeding prices from the 2022 peak. Competition in the lower price points has created opportunities, and desirable properties priced right across all segments are selling quickly. If mortgage rates, gas prices, and geopolitical turmoil continue to soften, this fall could make up for what so far has been a modestly active year.

 

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While the overall market has been relatively stable, the luxury market has seen some interesting activity. Mortgage interest rates are stuck above 6.5% for Conventional loans, and at nearly 7% for Jumbo loans, likely a strong influence damping the market. Inventory growth was modest, with a couple of price tranches shrinking week over week. None of this is a big surprise as we get closer to the midseason tipping point, and the Fourth of July is only a couple of weeks away. Mid-July to Labor Day can be one of the busiest stretches of the year, and now is not the time to become complacent!

Supply in Deschutes County between $1 million and $1,999,999 increased by 9 this week to 371. Twenty-five pending sales are up by 7 from last week, with 9 of those transactions reducing the asking price by an average of 4.59% before securing a contract. Eleven transactions closed, with an average price reduction of 3.3% before securing a buyer. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 97.66%.

Deschutes County inventory between $2 million and $2,999,999, increased by 2 to 87. Three homes are pending with 2 price reductions averaging 10%. Three transactions closed this week with no price changes before securing a buyer, and a sold-to-original-list-price ratio of 95.98%. This price tranche has shown steady activity all year, and the slower pace of supply growth could force buyers to take a harder look at existing inventory over the next several weeks.

The Deschutes County inventory of listings over $3 million took a surprising downturn this week, to 36 listings, down 5 from last week. Two pending sales account for some of that decline: $3,175,000 in Caldera Springs and $3,350,000 in Tetherow. Both of these developments have seen steady activity this year, in particular Caldera Springs and the new development, which nearly doubled the resort community's size. One transaction closed this week, another Tetherow listing at $3.6M, with a sale price of $3.55M.

There is every reason to believe inventory will increase for a few more weeks before tapering off towards winter. But the sharp decline in the price tranche over $3 million in Deschutes County is noteworthy. In Crook County, this is the first week of 2026 without any pending or closed transactions. Neither of these data points is particularly important for a single week, but if this continues, it will have a growing impact on the market as the rest of 2026 unfolds. As the market adjusts, determining correct pricing becomes more difficult. Do not hesitate to reach out for a market analysis for any segment of the market that is important to you! 

 

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The pace of inventory growth this week is slowing, with another month (give or take) before this year's peak supply is reached. The national average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage today is 6.67%, a level keeping sales volume in check. However, sales are very much in line with the last three years, with modest year-over-year changes. Steady growth in new residents to Central Oregon has kept the housing market humming along, and with summer just around the corner, there is a lot of time left for both buyers and sellers before we shift into slower off-season conditions.

Today in Deschutes County, there are 1,376 single-family homes listed, up by 13 from last week. Eighty-eight pending sales are up by 9 from last week, with 35 of those listings reducing the asking price an average of 5.77% before securing a buyer. Seventy-eight closed transactions are down 15 from last week, with 29 of those properties reducing their asking prices by an average of 5.07% before securing a contract. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio this week was 96.8%.

Crook County supply increased by 6 this week to 244 listings. Six pending sales are down by 1 from last week, with no price changes for these listings before securing a buyer. Eleven transactions closed this week, with 6 price reductions averaging just 1.79% before securing a buyer. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 98.13%. Sellers in Crook County, judging by this week's data, have found the sweet spot for pricing and are securing contracts without needing to negotiate much on price.

Jefferson County supply is up by 5 from last week to 156 single-family listings. There are 10 pending sales, up by 1 from last week, with 4 of those properties reducing their asking prices by an average of 3.47% before securing a contract. Eight closed transactions are up by 5 from last week, with 5 of those listings reducing the asking price by an average of 2.46% before securing a contract. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio for the week was 98.36%.

The more modest list prices for many of the sales in Crook and Jefferson Counties have created a floor in the market that sellers don’t need to breach. This dynamic is reflected in lower price-reduction percentages and higher sold-to-original-list-price ratios. In larger Deschutes County, where there are more higher-priced listings, negotiations are more common before reaching a price agreement. The Central Oregon housing market, spread across three counties, is extremely diverse. Not only is a county-by-county accounting necessary to evaluate the market, but also evaluating activity by price is necessary. If you are in the market above $1 million, my Central Oregon Luxury Market Report will be extremely helpful in evaluating that segment. Even better, reach out for a comprehensive market analysis for a specific property, neighborhood, or region.

 

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Your Bend Real Estate Agent is here to help

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Whether you are searching in Bend or any of the nearby areas, I want to help you find the perfect property. Even if you are in the beginning stages of your search, I always like to be a resource, no pressure ever.

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