Inventory in Central Oregon naturally declines seasonally, with the tipping point typically occurring in August. The steady reduction in supply appeared to begin this year, but this week several segments of the luxury market saw slight increases. Small ups and downs before the decline towards winter are not unheard of, but the more inventory is carried into spring, the more it impacts next year's market. Today, there aren’t any significant signs of a market shift, and 2026 looks set to outpace 2025 in sales. Still, some market segments are feeling the effects of increased competition, along with longer marketing cycles before securing a sale. Whether these are emerging trends or short-term anomalies remains to be seen, but I will continue tracking the data and watching for early indications of a market shift.
The Deschutes County supply of homes listed between $1 million and $1,999,999 increased by 4 this week to 365. Sixteen pending sales occurred this week, up by one from last week. However, last week’s report was one day shorter, coming out Thursday, making this week’s report one day longer. Fourteen transactions closed this week, down 4 from last week, with an average sale price of $1,170,194, skewing lower in the price tranche than in past weeks. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 93.81%, also lower than in past weeks. As we get later into the summer, sellers are more inclined to negotiate, and sales data from the past several months shows prices are flat, benefiting buyers.
Single-family homes in Dechutes County listed between $2 million and $2,999,999 also increased this week, up 6 to 84. One sale is pending in Northwest Crossing at $2,298,500 after 58 days on the market. Two transactions closed this week: one in Caldera Springs at $2,180,000 for 91.1% of the original list price, and a full-price sale in Tetherow at $2,675,000.
Deschutes County homes listed over $3 million decreased by 1 to 40 this week. One pending sale occurred in Deschutes River Ranch at $3,999,000, after 89 days on the market. However, this property expired after 435 days on the market last year, listed at $4,345,000, originally listed at $4,750,000. One transaction closed this week in Tetherow at $3,824,000, originally listed at $3,850,000, then raised to $3,899,000. This Tetherow transaction was listed for 199 days.
Crook County listings over $1 million increased by 3 this week to 72. One sale is pending in Powell Butte at $1,299,000. One transaction closed this week in Powell Butte for $1,000,000 after 524 days on the market. The original list price was $1,195,000, and it was decreased to $1,100,000, making the sale at 83.68% of the original list price.
Deschutes County farm listings over $1 million decreased by 1 this week to 13, with no pending or closed transactions for the eighth consecutive week.
Crook County farm listings over $1 million are stable at 17, with no pending or closed transactions for the third consecutive week.
Buyers and sellers are still finding common ground in today’s market, despite some tension, and sales are on pace to end the year higher than in 2025. How much of this tension survives the winter and shows up in the spring remains to be seen. But from today’s vantage point, 2027 is shaping up to look very similar to 2026. I don’t anticipate a significant change to mortgage rates next year, leaving inventory levels as the wild card. Of course, a lot can happen over the next several months. In the meantime, market analysis and price considerations for both buyers and sellers are more important than ever. Overpriced listings are seeing extended marketing times, and educated buyers are searching for the best properties at the best prices. Please reach out if you would benefit from a personalized analysis to get a clearer picture of today's housing market.
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