My Weekly Central Oregon Real Estate Blog

After a low several weeks ago of 5.99% for the national average on 30-year fixed-rate mortgages, rates have settled in near 6.5%. Barring anything significant, I expect rates to stay near this range for the bulk of the first half of summer. However, slightly higher-than-expected rates have not deterred buyers, and the steady market continues, with increased activity as the busier season draws near.

This morning in Deschutes County, inventory took another significant jump, adding 44 new listings for a total of 1,203 single-family homes. Ninety-six pending sales are down one from last week, with the last two weeks surpassing 90 for the first time this year. Sixty-one closed transactions are down two from last week, with the sold-to-orifinal-list-price ratio at 95.93%. The market is building towards peak season at a steady, predictable rate.

Crook County inventory increased by 8 to 226 single-family homes listed. Fifteen pending sales are down by 2 from last week. The last two weeks are the first of the year with pending sales at 15 or more. Eight transactions closed this week, double last week's number, with the sold-to-original-list-price ratio at 98.67%. Increased activity and firm prices in the county indicate strong buyer demand.

In Jefferson County, inventory increased by 3 this week to 137. Seven sales are pending, up by 4 from last week. Eight closed transactions are up by 2 from last week, with the sold-to-original-list-price ratio at 98.12%. Only two of the closed transactions reduced the asking price before securing a buyer, by an average of 0.048%, indicating the current strength of the market.

The first day of summer is still weeks away, and the Central Oregon housing market's busiest season generally begins after the Memorial Day weekend. Peak inventory typically occurs between late July and mid-August, with two slight lulls in the season occurring around the Fourth of July and Labor Day in early September. The time between Labor Day and just before Thanksgiving can be one of the busiest times of the year. The summer holidays create three significant blocks of time in our market, as Central Oregon housing is just starting to heat up!

I have written these weekly reports every Wednesday for seven years, but next week I will be taking a break with the next report due out later in May. See you when I return!

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In all but the $3 million-and-up price tranche, inventory is falling behind last year's pace. Fewer listings are keeping prices firm, while demand is steady. Still, the year-over-year changes are incremental, and the overall market remains stable. However, with expectations several months ago that mortgage rates would be below 6%, the conditions today are not as favorable as many had hoped. Peak season is still in the future, but the market is sending clear signals of a more tempered year ahead.

Deschutes County listings between $1 million and $1,999,999 increased by 5 this week to 305, which is 33 fewer than this week last year. Seventeen pending sales are down 1 from last week, with only 3 price changes averaging 7.81% before securing a contract. There were 11 closed transactions, with a strong average sold-to-original-list-price ratio of 100.43%.

Listings between $2 million and $2,999,999 in Deschutes County increased by 5 to 72, compared with 93 on this date in 2025. One pending sale occurred at $2,450,000 on Skyliners Road along Tumalo Creek. Color me biased, but I believe this is one of the truly special communities in Bend that really flies under the radar. Three transactions closed this week, averaging $2,326.408, with 2 of those sales reducing the asking price an average of 8.46%. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was a tempered 89.93%. Two of the closed sales were in Bend, on Johnson Road and Cultus Lake Loop, while the last was in Caldera Springs in Sunriver.

The $3 million and up price tranche in Deschutes County is the only segment of Central Oregon luxury homes with increased inventory, sitting at 43 this week, up from 35 in 2025. One sale is pending on Mariposa Road in Tumalo at $3,295,000 after 21 days on the market. One transaction closed this week on Swalley Road near Deschutes River Ranch at $3,000,000, originally listed at $3,500,000.

Crook County inventory over $1 million is up by 2 from last week to 51 compared to 59 this week in 2025. One sale in Brasada Ranch is pending on Branding Iron Court at $1,319,000, listed just 8 days. No transactions over $1 million were closed this week in the county.

Deschutes County farm listings over $1 million are down by 1 to 13, with no pending or closed transactions. Crook County farm listings over $1 million are also down by 1 to 16, with no pending or closed transactions. The farm segment of the market has struggled to put up any numbers for several weeks.

The luxury housing market is steady, but calm, with subdued activity, interspersed with some quick sales. Most buyers in the over $1 million segment are knowledgeable and ready to move when the right home comes along. There is an interesting mix of attractive new listings, stagnant properties, and price drops as sellers try to position themselves correctly for the summer season. Staying current with the market is imperative for would-be buyers and sellers, as proper pricing is more important than ever. Please reach out if you need any research on a market segment under consideration. 

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Some trends are developing in the Central Oregon housing market, with each county showing different trajectories at the moment. Mortgage interest rates rose by 7 basis points recently, with the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional loan today at 6.45%. On this day in 2025, rates were at 6.81% after falling for a few weeks. However, on May 22, 2025, rates hit 7.07%. One month ago, the national average was 6.64%, with the recent low last week at 6.3%. The volatility today is hard to predict and is unquestionably impacting the market. While rates have improved, the difference between today and last year is narrower than many expected.

This morning, in Deschutes County, actively listed single-family homes are at 1,159, up only 5 from last week. On this day in 2025, there were 1,181 listings, as the year-over-year gap narrows. There were 97 pending sales this week, 13 more than last week, and 17 more than this week in 2025. Buyers are watching mortgage rates carefully, and locking in on the dips, followed by increased sales activity, which likely explains the jump in pending sales this week. Sixty-three transactions closed this week, the same as last week, averaging $913,563. Twenty-two of the closed transactions reduced the asking price an average of 6.33% before securing a contract, with the sold-to-original-list-price ratio at 97.3%.

In Crook County, actively listed single-family homes are 218, down 8 from last week. On this day in 2025, there were 201 listings, showing an opposite trend from more populated Deschutes County. There were 17 pending sales this week, 13 more than last week, compared to just 3 in 2025. Four transactions closed this week, one more than last week, averaging $756,000. One of the closed transactions reduced the asking price 5.33% before securing a contract, with the sold-to-original-list-price ratio at 94.77%.

Jefferson County inventory increased by 6 to 134 listings, compared to 117 this week in 2025. Three sales are pending this week, down from 11 this week last year. Six transactions closed this week, the same as last, with half reducing the list price by an average of 7.76% before securing a contract. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 95.9%.

The biggest revelation in comparing this year's data to 2025 is the similarity in trends. Week-to-week numbers are always subject to variation, but the year-to-date numbers are remarkably stable year over year. The small differences in inventory levels have only a modest impact on the overall market. If I were to speculate, I'd say higher-than-expected mortgage rates this year are having the biggest impact. Still, we are very likely to see a 50% increase in supply in Deschutes County between now and peak season, with more modest increases in Crook and Jefferson Counties.

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Mortgage interest volatility has calmed down over the last couple of weeks, while sales are beginning to pick up. Peak inventory is still a couple of months away, with the bulk of the 2026 activity still well ahead of today. While activity closely follows last year, there are some differences I will detail below that could be early signs of trends developing. Nationwide, the big firms are reporting on increased supply, decreased seller activity, and stable prices. Some of this applies to Central Oregon, but real estate is local, and our market is diverging from the national market in specific ways.

Today in Deschutes County, listings between $1 million and $1,999,999 are up by five from last week to 297. This week in 2025, there were 325 active listings. The decrease in inventory for this price tranche is a noticeable difference from the national market. Eighteen pending sales this week are down 4 from last week. Twelve closed transactions are down 1 from last week, with the average sold-to-original-list-price ratio at 95.85%, and only 3 of those listings reduced the asking price by an average of 3.7%. Year-to-date 2025, there were 176 sales compared to 159 this year.

Deschutes County listings between $2 million and $2,999,999 decreased by 1, now at 67, compared to 88 this week in 2025. The decrease in this price tranche is another notable change from the national data, keeping our prices firm. Six pending sales this week are up by 4 from last week. Two transactions closed this week, one more than last week. The first sale was on Pittman Place in Bend's Discovery West neighborhood at $2,425,000, $26k above the list price, and listed only 4 days. The second closing was in Caldera Springs at $2,679,225, down from the original list price of $3,195,000. Year-to-date 2025, there were 29 sales compared to 25 this year.

Homes listed for over $3 million in Deschutes County today total 42, down by 1 from last week. This week in 2025, there were 33 active listings. The $3 million-and-up segment of the Central Oregon luxury market is an anomaly compared with the rest of Deschutes County. One pending sale occurred this week on Shasta Place near Miller's Landing at $4,500,000. One transaction closed this week on Swalley Road for the full list price of $3,000,000. Year-to-date 2025, there were 15 sales compared to 10 this year. The average sale price increased from $3,380,066 to $4,455,000.

Crook County listings over $1 million increased by 2 to 49, down from 58 last year. There were two pending sales this week: the first in Brasada Ranch at $1,375,000, and the second in Powel Butte at $1,650,000. One transaction closed at $1,730,000 in Brasada Ranch, originally listed at $1,825,000. Year-to-date 2025, there were 10 sales compared to 13 this year. The average sale price decreased from $1,670,670 to $1,503,807. Given the smaller inventory in this market segment compared to 2025 levels, the increase in closed sales is noteworthy. As growth in Central Oregon continues, many new residents are finding Crook County, and in particular Brasada Ranch, an appealing option compared to more expensive Deschutes County properties.

Deschutes County farm listings are flat at 14, with no pending or closed transactions for the seventh consecutive week.

Crook County farm listings increased by four to 17, with no pending or closed transactions. However, the increase in inventory is attributable to two new listings, each with two entries. The first, on McDaniel Road, is listed at $12,000,000 for 915 acres, while a second listing at the same address lists it at $6,500,000 and 316 acres. The other new listings, located on Van Lake Road, include a 6,742-acre listing at $8,700,000, a subdivided parcel at $6,700,000, and 3,551 acres.

Hundreds, or even thousands of acres of farm property, are an undertaking not everyone is looking for. However, the locations and privacy are unmatched, with revenue potential and favorable tax advantages.

As always, the Central Oregon luxury market is active, with an incredible diversity of properties across the different price tranches. Throw in the large acreage farm properties, and there really is something for everyone. So far this year, fewer listings are matching somewhat decreased demand, keeping prices firm. Evaluating luxury properties requires matching needs to location and assessing prices, which takes a unique skill. Please reach out if you need a comprehensive market analysis for any property in our region. 

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Whether you are searching in Bend or any of the close by areas, I want to help you find the perfect property. Even if you are in the beginning stages of your search, I always like to be a resource, no pressure ever.

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The national average for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage today is 6.32%, down slightly but stable. While this is higher than expected, rates are near enough to 6% to keep activity steady. Inventory continues to rise, with activity picking up, but the market remains subdued overall. The Central Oregon housing market is as balanced as it has been in several years, making for very predictable pricing, with few surprises. With relatively flat pricing since the 2022 peak and more supply across all price points, the tone for 2026 seems set. Without something that shakes up the economy, this year looks to be a near mirror image of 2025.

Deschutes County supply increased by 26 this week to 1,154. The average list price is $1,136,560, and 509 homes have reduced their asking prices by an average of 5.7%. Eighty-four sales are pending this week, up by 2 from last week. Forty of the pending sales reduced the asking price by an average of 7.71%. Sixty-three transactions closed this week, averaging $798,193, and 21 reduced the asking price by an average of 4.6% before securing a buyer. The average sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 96.76%. Only one-third of the sold properties reduced their asking prices, and a sold ratio of less than 4% off the list price shows that sellers are zeroing in on the right pricing, and buyers are stepping up. One word describes the Deschutes County market: stable.

Crook County inventory is accelerating, with 15 more listings than last week, bringing the total to 226. The average list price is $987,089, and half of the active listings have reduced their prices by an average of 5.69%. Pending sales dropped from 11 last week to 4, with only one price change of 8.29%. Three transactions closed this week, down from 7 last week. There were no price changes before securing a contract, with the sold-to-original-list-price ratio at 99.7%. All in all, this was a slow week for transactions and a strong week for pricing.

The Jefferson County inventory is up by 8 to 128 active listings. Pending sales were down significantly last week, from 11 to 3, with no price reductions. Six transactions closed this week, down 2 from the previous week. Four of the closed transactions reduced the asking price by an average of 5.62%, with an average sold-to-original-list-price ratio of 96.77%. Jefferson County closely followed Crook County this week with less activity and strong pricing.

The stability in the Central Oregon housing market is creating a level of predictability not seen in years. While 2025 saw increased activity over 2024, this year is looking flat across most metrics. Inventory in all but the highest price points is down slightly. Check out my Friday Luxury Market Report for a comprehensive analysis of the $1 million and up market here!

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Your Bend Real Estate Agent is here to help

Reed Melton serves Bend and surrounding areas

Whether you are searching in Bend or any of the nearby areas, I want to help you find the perfect property. Even if you are in the beginning stages of your search, I always like to be a resource, no pressure ever.

Ask a QuestionI need to sell my homeCall Me

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