Some trends are developing in the Central Oregon housing market, with each county showing different trajectories at the moment. Mortgage interest rates rose by 7 basis points recently, with the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional loan today at 6.45%. On this day in 2025, rates were at 6.81% after falling for a few weeks. However, on May 22, 2025, rates hit 7.07%. One month ago, the national average was 6.64%, with the recent low last week at 6.3%. The volatility today is hard to predict and is unquestionably impacting the market. While rates have improved, the difference between today and last year is narrower than many expected.
This morning, in Deschutes County, actively listed single-family homes are at 1,159, up only 5 from last week. On this day in 2025, there were 1,181 listings, as the year-over-year gap narrows. There were 97 pending sales this week, 13 more than last week, and 17 more than this week in 2025. Buyers are watching mortgage rates carefully, and locking in on the dips, followed by increased sales activity, which likely explains the jump in pending sales this week. Sixty-three transactions closed this week, the same as last week, averaging $913,563. Twenty-two of the closed transactions reduced the asking price an average of 6.33% before securing a contract, with the sold-to-original-list-price ratio at 97.3%.
In Crook County, actively listed single-family homes are 218, down 8 from last week. On this day in 2025, there were 201 listings, showing an opposite trend from more populated Deschutes County. There were 17 pending sales this week, 13 more than last week, compared to just 3 in 2025. Four transactions closed this week, one more than last week, averaging $756,000. One of the closed transactions reduced the asking price 5.33% before securing a contract, with the sold-to-original-list-price ratio at 94.77%.
Jefferson County inventory increased by 6 to 134 listings, compared to 117 this week in 2025. Three sales are pending this week, down from 11 this week last year. Six transactions closed this week, the same as last, with half reducing the list price by an average of 7.76% before securing a contract. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 95.9%.
The biggest revelation in comparing this year's data to 2025 is the similarity in trends. Week-to-week numbers are always subject to variation, but the year-to-date numbers are remarkably stable year over year. The small differences in inventory levels have only a modest impact on the overall market. If I were to speculate, I'd say higher-than-expected mortgage rates this year are having the biggest impact. Still, we are very likely to see a 50% increase in supply in Deschutes County between now and peak season, with more modest increases in Crook and Jefferson Counties.
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