Momentum is shifting at this time of year, with a shrinking home inventory and winter weather looming. The sharp increase in mortgage interest rates hasn’t yet shown up as a strong headwind in the weekly data, and it seems more apparent in the broader market than in luxury properties. With Thanksgiving two months away, the clock is ticking for anyone who wants to close before the holidays, and I don't expect a significant change in activity between now and the holiday season.
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Deschutes County listings between $1 million and $1,999,999 experienced the biggest decrease in some time, dropping from 368 to 355 today. Twelve pending sales match last week’s total, with half of those listings reducing their asking price by an average of 11.94% before securing a contract. Closed transactions jumped considerably from 6 last week to 17. Seven of the closed sales reduced their asking price by an average of 8.91% before securing a buyer, with the sold-to-original-list-price ratio at 89.16%.
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Deschutes County listings between $2 million and $2,999,999 are flat this week at 72. All three pending sales this week are in resort communities: Tetherow at $2,450,000, Caldera Springs at $2,495,000, and Black Butte Ranch at $2,600,000. No listing price decreases occurred for any of the pending sales. No transactions closed this week.
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Listings over $3 million in Deschutes County increased by 1 this week to 40. Two sales are pending this week: Caldera Springs at $3,500,000, and a listing on Fryrear Road in Sisters at $5,350,000, with neither listing reducing the asking price before securing a contract. One transaction closed at the full asking price of $3,999,000 in Deschutes River Ranch.
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Crook County listings over $1 million are stable at 71 for the third consecutive week. Three transactions are pending: in Powell Butte on Desert Sage Lane for $1,005,000 (280 days listed); in Brasada Ranch on Paragon Court for $1,875,000 (80 days listed); and on Fleming Road in Powell Butte for $1,999,000(1,056 days listed). All three of the pending sales reduced their asking price before securing a contract by an average of 6.62%. One transaction closed this week on Houston Lake Road in Powell Butte for $3,000,000, 92.31% of the listing price.
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Deschutes County Farm listings increased by 1 this week to 14, with half of the active inventory reducing their asking prices by an average of 12.71%. No transactions went pending or closed this week.
Crook County Farm listings decreased by 2 this week to 14, with 9 of those listings reducing their asking prices by an average of 6.82%. The only activity was a pending sale: the same Fleming Road property mentioned above, listed at $1,999,000. No transactions closed this week.
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Mortgage markets generally anticipate economic changes rather than reacting to them. This week's spike in the 30-year Conventional and 30-year Jumbo rates seems to reflect anticipation of further Federal Reserve rate increases. Any number of geopolitical factors could help or hurt the recent trends, but none will occur soon. Fall activity in Central Oregon will likely follow recent trends, with bigger shifts developing over the winter and into spring. In the meantime, we are seeing steady activity in the luxury market, with strong pricing above $2 million and more negotiating below $2 million.
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