With the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage at 7.26% today, activity in the Central Oregon housing market is still stable in Deschutes, Crook, and Jefferson Counties. Unfortunately, mortgage rates aren't expected to drop soon and will likely stay elevated for some time. Higher rates undoubtedly impact buyers who depend on financing, but the impact on listing inventory remains to be seen. Typically, sustained higher rates mean more supply, but many sellers with time might choose to sit things out until rates soften. How this plays out won’t be clear until spring 2027, with the decline toward winter inventory levels already underway.
In Deschutes County last season, inventory fell to a low of 761 single-family homes in late January. In Crook County, inventory hit a low in early January, reaching 145 listings. Jefferson County supply bottomed out at 10 single-family listings in early February. Supply exceeding these lows heading into spring could be an early indication of what the housing market will look like next year, but today, buyers are still active before winter weather takes over.
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Deschutes County single-family listings fell by 20 this week to 1,409. The average list price is $1,075,013, with 870 (61.75%) decreasing the asking price by an average of 6.65%. Sixty-one pending sales are down by 15 from last week, with 30 reducing the asking price by an average of 8.96% before securing a contract. Seventy-one closed transactions are up 1 from last week, with 33 reducing the asking price by an average of 6.28% before securing a buyer, and a sold-to-original-list-price ratio of 94.5%.
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Crook County supply is stable this week at 269, with an average list price of $933,392, and 153 (56.88%) listings reducing their list price by an average of 7.04%. Nine transactions are pending this week, with 7 of those listings reducing their asking price by an average of 7.15% before securing a contract. Four transactions closed this week, down by 3 from last week, with two of those listings reducing their asking price by an average of 8.42% before securing a buyer. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 93.56%.
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Jefferson County supply is down by 1 from last week to 152, with 86 (56.58%) reducing their asking price by an average of 6.28%. Five pending sales are up by 1 from last week, with 4 of those listings reducing their asking price by an average of 6.84% before securing a contract. Three closed transactions are down 2 from last week, with 1 of those sales reducing its asking price by 2%.32% before securing the buyer, and a sold-to-original-list-price ratio of 95.52%.
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While mortgage rates may be high, the data shows consistent activity as we approach fall. The biggest decline in activity occurred in 2023 after mortgage rates first rose after many years of abnormally low rates. Since 2023, activity has been steady and has increased each year incrementally, with stable pricing. Overall, despite geopolitical uncertainty, our economy is strong, and housing demand in Central Oregon is steady. Higher rates may soften demand to some degree, but the last few years have shown remarkable resilience among home buyers in our region. However, sellers should price accordingly given higher borrowing costs.
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