Current Jumbo mortgage rates have jumped since the last Fed meeting, up another 11 basis points from last week. Borrowing costs are in transition, but the recent path rates have taken reflects the market catching up to what will likely be another three or four increases at subsequent Federal Reserve meetings, not a reaction to a single 25 basis point increase. The good news is that when the Fed meets again on October 27, even if they raise another 25 basis points, mortgage rates are unlikely to be impacted. The bad news is that the rate adjustment we are seeing doesn't appear to have settled. Closed transactions reported today were pending sales before the recent increase, but pending sales remain steady, with a typical decline as the season winds down. Eight of the 22 closed transactions in Deschutes County this week over $1 million were cash deals, with one financed by the seller.
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Deschutes County single-family listings between $1 million and $1,999,999 decreased by 17 to 338 this week. Fourteen pending sales are up by 2 from last week, with 10 of those listings reducing their asking price by an average of 8.43% before securing a contract. Twenty closed transactions are up 3 from last week, the most since July. Twelve of those closed transactions reduced their asking price by an average of 8.69%, with the sold-to-original-list-price ratio at 93.05%.
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Single-family listings in Deschutes County between $2 million and $2,999,999 decreased by 4 this week to 68. One sale is pending in the Ranch at the Canyons at $2,800,000 after a 12.36% price reduction. One transaction closed this week in SE Bend for $2,250,000, 92.25% of the original list price.
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Deschutes County listings over $3 million are stable this week at 40. No sales went pending this week, and one full-price transaction closed at $3,999,000 in Deschutes River Ranch.
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Crook County single-family listings over $1 million increased by 3 to 74, this week. Three pending sales matched last week, with 2 of those listings reducing their asking price by an average of 3.72% before securing a contract. One closed transaction also matched last week, but the closed sale was a whopping $15,000,000. This listing was on the market for 2,582 days and was originally listed for $33,000,000.
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Deschutes County Farm listings over $1 million are down 1 to 13, with no sales activity. Crook County Farm listings over $1 million are stable at 14, with no sales activity this week.
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2026 will not set any sales volume records in Central Oregon, but the pace is on track with 2025, along with reasonable inventory. It is hard to say where mortgage rates will settle, but in the luxury market, a high percentage of cash deals are bypassing those borrowing costs. Even financed sales are very likely to be paid off well ahead of the loan terms, making financing more of a short-term tool than a necessity. The largest impact of higher mortgage rates will occur in the market below $1 million. Either way, my weekly reports will reveal market shifts immediately, so stay tuned!
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