On May 9th, I will report how 2025 compares to the last four years, starting in 2021, so keep an eye out for that analysis. Without the context of seeing how any year compares with the recent past, it can be challenging to know whether today's trends are indicative of a strong market or just typical activity. Spoiler alert: the market above $1M is strong! In Crook County, there have been ten sales YTD above $1M, bested by both 2022 and 2023 at 15 and 14, respectively. In Deschutes County, only 2022 had better numbers, with 263 sales YTD, compared to 218 this year.
This morning, in Deschutes County, there are 325 single-family homes listed between $1M and $1,999,999, an increase of seventeen from last week. This price tranche is the only segment above $1M to see inventory growth this week. With sixteen pending and closed transactions, the activity here is remarkably consistent. The median days listed for pending sales were 34, with the closed transaction days listed as 10. Properties selling at near single-digit days listed are a signal to buyers to be ready and not waste time. While sellers are in a strong position, pricing as close to what the market will bear is imperative in this competitive market segment.
Inventory between $2M and $2,999,999 dropped by one to 88 single-family listings. Two pending sales, at 32 and 15 days listed and $2,450,000 and $2,575,000, respectively, are double the last three weeks of just one pending sale per week. Two closed transactions on the West Side of Bend occurred at $2M and $2,240,000, at two and 262 days listed last week. But don't let the long marketing time fool you on the $2,240,000 sale; this new construction was listed before construction began.
Over $3M inventory is flat at 33 single-family listings. One pending sale at $3,995,000 and a full year listed occurred in Tumalo, with two closed transactions at 3,200,000 in SE Bend and the other at $3,350,000 in Tumalo. Marketing time for these sales were 365 and 147 days, respectively, which is typical for the higher end of our market.
Crook County inventory above $1M increased by one to 58 single-family homes. One pending sale listed 333 days and listed for $1,399,000 occurred on Mount Hood Drive in West Powell Butte Estates. Two sales were recorded in Crook County, one on Mt. Adams Loop in West Powell Butte Estates at $1,200,000 and the other in Brasada Ranch at $1,900,000. The West Powell Butte estate sale was listed for just twelve days, while the Brasada Ranch listing was an immediate sale, showing zero days listed.
Listing growth will be a significant factor in the high-end market over the next few months. If this week is any indication, growth is tepid, putting upward pressure on prices for the remaining inventory. However, it is too early in the season to know whether more properties will list or if constrained supply will become a factor.
Jumbo mortgage interest rates were flat this week, with the national average at 7.05%. While rates may be high, stability produces steadier activity than volatility, as buyers know what to expect. Even drops in rates can slow activity, with many buyers waiting to see if rates drop even further. I have mentioned several times that I predicted rate volatility of ~30 basis points for the foreseeable future. If a rate drop happens in that range, buyers looking to finance a property purchase should lock in rather than wait for a bigger decrease. Economic conditions today do not put downward pressure on rates.
