Inventory in the luxury market is slowly inching up while mortgage rates are falling. This morning, the 30-year Jumbo mortgage national average was 6.8%, down from 7% just a few days ago. With sales only outpaced by blockbuster 2022 activity, 2025 is shaping to be a strong year for the Central Oregon luxury market. With fantastic weather on tap for the weekend, buyers should be out in force touring homes before another week of intermittent rain. The days are noticeably longer, and warmer weather is approaching. Buyers should be touring homes today to learn the market and gain the necessary knowledge to identify the great deals when they hit, with sellers finalizing plans to market and list their homes for maximum exposure. Peak season is nearly here!
This morning, there are 276 single-family homes listed between $1,000,000 and $1,999,999, an increase of eight since last Friday. Sixteen pending transactions marketed for a median of only 21 days continue the trend of attractive homes selling fast in this competitive price range—fourteen closed transactions with a sold price-to-list ratio of 98.18%. Only four sellers decreased the asking price before securing a buyer for the pending transactions, with four closed transactions negotiating a lower price than the asking price. The ratios of price reductions in this tranche are much lower than the overall market, showing that prices are firm. The average sale price per square foot was $532.
There were eight more listings in the $2,000,000 to $2,999,999 range than last Friday, bringing the total to 81 single-family homes. One pending sale at $2,399,900 reduced the asking price by 6.98% before finding a buyer and 263 days listed. Two homes closed, one in Bend at $2,600,000 and the other in Black Butte Ranch at $2,450,000. The Bend home closed at $99,999 less than the asking price, and the Black Butte Ranch home closed for $75,000 less than the list price. The sale price per square foot was $617 and $629, respectively.
Listings above $3M are holding steady, with 31 this morning. Over the last five weeks, the low was 29, and the high was 32. New listings are sure to come as the weather improves over the coming weeks. One of the latest listings this week is my Mountain View Road listing, linked below. One sale is pending this week at $3,400,000 after 45 days on the market and no price reductions before securing a contract. Three homes closed, the first at $3,280,000 on the river near Drake Park for $119,00 under the list price, the second in Tetherow for $3,500,000, $200k under the list price, and $300k more than the last sale in June 2023, and the final, new construction in Tetherow, for $3,650,000, $225k under the list price.
Crook County inventory has been flat since last week, with 48 single-family listings over $1M. No pending sales registered this week, and one closed in Brasada Ranch for $1,415,000, listed for $1,508,900. The Brasada Ranch sale was a cash deal.
It would be easy to look at the price reductions of the closed transactions and surmise that prices are softening. However, pricing truly spectacular properties in our diverse market is always challenging. The sold prices reflect continued price appreciation despite the reductions. Interestingly, seven of the fourteen sales between $1M and $2M were cash transactions, and all five of the sales over $2M. Falling Jumbo mortgage rates help buyers who want to limit the opportunity cost of an all-cash transaction, but most in the luxury market are not using financing. Unsurprisingly, these buyers use leverage to negotiate below the asking price. The next several weeks will reveal much about how the luxury market unfolds for the summer season.
