Mortgage rates have been slightly declining since the 30-year fixed-rate Jumbo mortgage peaked at 7.26% in January of this year. The national average rate this morning for Jumbo loans is 6.70%, and judging by the graph of rates, rates will likely continue to soften through the end of summer. To be sure, the change from the beginning of the year is small, but as rates decrease, activity increases.
This morning in Deschutes County, there are 419 single-family homes priced between $1 million and $2 million, a decrease of four from last week. Fifteen pending sales with an average price decrease of -10.26% occurred this week. Fourteen transactions closed this week, with the average reduction at -7.07%.
Homes listed between $2 million and $3 million decreased from 105 to 104 listings. There were two pending sales and two closed transactions, with the average decrease in pending sales at 2.01%, and no price changes to the closed transactions.
Inventory in Deschutes County over $3 million increased from 46 to 48, with one pending sale at $4,800,000 and one closed transaction at $5,200,000. There were no price changes in either of the pending or closed transactions.
Crook County inventory over $1 million also increased, from 74 to 75 active listings. There were two pending sales this week at an average of $1,749,500, and one sale in Brasada Ranch at $2,325,000 that sold for -7.96% less than the asking price.
The year-to-date comparison to 2024 reveals some interesting trends about our market:
In Crook County in 2024, there were 29 YTD sales over $1 million, at an average of $1,506,983. In 2025, there were 23 sales, with an average of $1,606,421. This comparison is really an analysis of Powell Butte and Brasada Ranch, as the overwhelming majority of the higher-priced sales occur in these areas.
In Deschutes County YTD 2024, between $1 million and $2,999,999, there were 439 sales, averaging $1,467,469. So far in 2025, there have been 463 sales averaging $1,511,208, showing increased activity and reasonable price increases.
However, the sales over $3 million in Deschutes County tell a different story. Year-to-date 2024, 21 sales averaged $4,159,125, compared to 24 sales in 2025, with an average of $3,651,166.
The decrease in the average sale price for the high-end market in Deschutes County is interesting. There is no denying that more homes are selling, with the number closer to $3 million than last year. Considering the relatively small number of sales in the high-end and increased activity in the second half of the year, the gap could narrow as the remainder of summer unfolds. Last year, there were 37 sales over $3 million, and with the pace of sales this year, that leaves ~15 more sales this year still to come. Unless some of the more exclusive properties close this year, 2025 stands to close out with a significant reduction in the average sale price of high-end properties. I caution against an assumption that prices are collapsing for high-end sales. In 2025 YTD, there were three sales over $5 million compared to two this year. All of these numbers could change dramatically with a single sale.
Analysing the market over $3 million can be challenging, as the diversity of location, amenities, views, and exclusivity all play an outsized role in the price a property commands. This segment of the market requires a property-by-property analysis and time to market to the broadest audience to find the right buyer.Pricing correctly in today's market is crucial!
