Every year, the Central Oregon housing market experiences a reset at year's end, then builds back to a peak in late summer. Many listings expire on December 31 and will not relist until spring. This phenomenon, combined with changes in the economy and mortgage interest rates, creates a fresh scenario each spring that isn't always easy to see until it unfolds. However, there are signs as the new year begins that show the direction our housing market is moving. Of course, these signs will not reveal sudden shocks to the market, but barring anything out of the ordinary, it isn't terribly difficult to predict the market, at least the first several months of the new year.
Mortgage interest rates will be relatively stable in 2026, removing one variable from the equation. The following variable will be inventory levels, in particular, how low they go this winter and how quickly they build this spring. After that, buyer demand ties it all together. After a dip in transaction volume in 2023, sales volume over the past two years has increased, now at reasonably normal historical levels, and there is every reason to believe that sales will increase further in 2026. Tracking how much inventory declines after the end of the year is the last metric that will provide early insight into 2026, followed by where inventory levels go from there.
As expected, this week is slow in real estate, and listings in Deschutes County between $1 million and $1,999,999 are the same as last week at 208. Only six pending sales occurred this week, with two of those properties reducing their asking prices before securing a contract, an average of 10.74%. However, there were 16 closed transactions, averaging $1,370,949, with 11 of those properties reducing their asking price an average of 9.39% before securing a buyer. The sold-to-origional-list-price ratio was 86.99%.
Deschutes County listings between $2 million and $2,999,999 increased by one this week to 57. There were no pending or closed transactions.
Listings in Deschutes County over $3 million decreased by three to 34, with no pending or closed transactions.
Crook County listings over $1 million remain at 44, with one pending sale on Wooden Trestle Lane in Brasada Ranch. The Wooden Trestle property was listed for 230 days, with a 5.56% price reduction, before securing a buyer. There were no closed transactions this week.
Deschutes County Farm listings over $1 million decreased by 2 to 11, with no pending or closed transactions. Crook County farm listings over $1 million have a four-week streak with inventory stuck at 11, and the average list price is $3,439,000.There were no pending or closed transactions this week.
The stability of our market continues, with no apparent jolts to housing in Central Oregon. I will continue tracking all of this data and reporting my findings so you are abreast of any early developing trends. My following report on the broader market will be on Christmas Eve, with the Luxury Market Report the day after Christmas. I wish all of you a happy year-end with family and friends! Thank you for following my writing and continuing to allow me to serve you. None of my research matters without you!<
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