Reading economic news lately leaves me with whiplash, since the reporting is so heavily biased and subject to interpretation. Some reports show financial stability, while others bemoan a recession. From my corner of the world, with bi-weekly data dissemination on the Central Oregon housing market, the outlook is improving, with all indications pointing to a more active year than 2025. While prices may not be skyrocketing, gains made during the stretch between 2020 and 2022 are locked in, with stable pricing in the luxury markets. Price reductions are rampant, and to the uneducated eye, give the impression of a softening market. However, the median and average sale prices show stability. Mortgage interest rates near 6% are attracting more buyers, and any further reduction will increase activity significantly.
Deschutes County single-family listings between $1 million and $1,999,999 increased this week by one to 190. An increase of one hardly qualifies as a trend, but stable or growing inventory at this time of year is an indicator of what is to come this spring. There is little doubt that the unseasonably mild weather is a contributing factor to this extremely active segment of the market. Fourteen sales are pending this week, up 5 from last week, with 5 of those listings reducing the asking price by an average of 6.02% before securing a buyer. Five transactions closed this week, with four of those sales reducing the price an average of 11.52% before securing a contract. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 87.36%.
Listings between $2 million and $2,999,999 in Deschutes County are also holding steady at 50, down by one from last week. Two pending sales this week occurred at $2,187,000 in the Ranch at the Canyons in Terrebonne and at $2,488,000 in Sunriver. Two transactions closed this week for $2,025,000 in Juniper Preserve (Pronghorn) and $2,500,000 on Cascade Estates Drive in Tumalo. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 88.73%.
Inventory in Deschutes County over $3 million is stable at 30, with no pending transactions this week. One transaction closed this week in Caldera Springs at $3,125,000. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 90.58%.
Crook County single-family homes over $1 million are also stable at 37, the same as last week. One sale is pending this week at $1,285,000 in Powell Butte, with a 6.55% price reduction before securing a buyer. One transaction closed this week at $1,080,000, also in Powell Butte, with a sold-to-original-list-price ratio of 83.14%.
Deschutes County farm listings remain at 12 with no pending or closed transactions. Crook County farm listings are unchanged at 11 with no pending or closed transactions.
Increased inventory in 2025 created competition amongst sellers not seen in several years. With considerably more selection, buyers were able to pick and choose the perfect fit for their needs, forcing sellers to factor in competing properties into the price equation more than in the recent past. These dynamics have kept prices mostly flat over the past few years. With inventory levels remaining elevated this winter, all indications point to more listings this spring. The unknown variable will be buyer demand, although lower interest rates are bringing more buyers to the table. While this time of year is typically the doldrums of Central Oregon real estate, activity is surprisingly high this winter. An essential factor to watch as spring unfolds will be how much buyer demand tempers growing supply.<
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