It is an interesting time of year in Central Oregon luxury real estate and the broader economy. While many signs point to a more productive summer, the notoriously slow late winter period makes any prediction difficult. However, some early trends are emerging that I am keeping an eye on, in particular, inventory levels, which have remained above seasonal trends over the past few years. The national average for a 30-year jumbo mortgage is 6.35%, down nearly 100 basis points from this time last year. These two data points are the building blocks of increased activity this summer, with the only remaining unknown being buyer demand.
Inventory in Deschutes County this week, between $1 million and $1,999,999, remains unchanged at 192, with 89 listings reducing their asking prices by an average of 6.83%. Twelve pending sales are an increase of four in the most active price tranche of the luxury market. Seven of the pending sales reduced their asking price by an average of 4.14% before securing a contract. Eight closed transactions this week, up by one, with four of those listings reducing the asking price by an average of 6.89% before securing a buyer. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio this week was 93.26%.
Deschutes County listings between $2 million and $2,999,999 are down by one to 52, with 22 of those listings reducing their asking price by an average of 7.44%. Two sales are pending: $2,129,000 in Caldera Springs and $2,999,000 on Eastes Street in NW Bend. The Caldera Springs listing dropped its asking price 2.56% before securing a buyer. No transactions closed this week.
Listings over $3 million in Deschutes County remain at 29, with no pending or closed transactions. Seventeen of the active listings have decreased their asking price by an average of 9.82%.
Crook County listings over $1 million increased by two this week to 38. Twenty of those listings have decreased their asking price by an average of 4.26%. There were no pending or closed transactions this week.
Deschutes County farm listings over $1 million are stagnant for the fourth consecutive week at 12, with three of those listings reducing their asking prices by an average of 15.64% and the median price decreasing by 3.26%. Since the middle of October, there have been only one pending and one closed transaction in this segment of the market.
Crook County farm listings over $1 million hit 11 in late November, then dropped to 10 two weeks ago, where they remain. The last pending sale was in mid-November, and there were no pending or closed transactions again this week.
Segments of the tranches reported on here conduct most of the yearly business from late spring through fall, particularly residential listings over $3 million, and farm properties. While inventory is steady for this time of year, far more properties will be available this spring. The inventory on the market today is either not substantially appealing, overpriced, or both. In many cases, the pricing issues are as much a feature of the market today as they are a function of overly optimistic sellers. Less competition in the winter can be great for sellers, but buyers also expect to find better deals. And with median sale prices essentially flat since the market peak in 2022, amid more competition, sellers are adjusting prices to find the sweet spot. This trend is evident in the price-reduction percentages for the active, pending, and sold data. Whether you are a buyer or a seller this year, tracking the data trends today will help you make better decisions as inventory and activity build towards summer.
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