Last week, the activity in the luxury markets slowed, but volume this week rebounded, dispelling any hint of a market slowdown. Spring in particular can be up and down, just like the mortgage markets of late.
Those of you who also read my Wednesday report know I believe mortgage rates will remain range-bound between 6% and 6.25% through the second quarter, when Kevin Warsh is likely to take over at the Fed from Jerome Powell. Warsh still needs Senate approval, which is likely to happen, despite some early resistance from banking committee member Thom Tillis, a North Carolina Republican. Interestingly, the resistance is due to a probe of Jerome Powell, and seemingly has nothing to do with Warsh. Candidly, this is all just noise, and I expect Warsh to gain the nomination in the end.
There may still be a strong chance that rates soften in the third quarter, but even then, I expect Warsh to take a cautious approach, in typical 25-basis-point increments. For Central Oregon luxury real estate, expect stable prices, relatively more supply, and steady buyer demand.
Supply of single-family homes in Deschutes County between $1 million and $1,999,999 increased by nine to 243 in the seasonal buildup to peak inventory this summer. A whopping 17 listings are pending this week, up by 12 from last week. Nine transactions closed, with just two of those sales reducing the list price before securing a buyer. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 95.53%.
In the Deschutes County $2 million to $2,999,999 price tranche, there are four more listings than last week, bringing the total to 60. There are two pending sales this week: the first at $2,500,000 on Awbrey Butte, and the second at $2,760,000 in Tumalo. Two transactions closed this week: the first at $2,052,000 in Caldera Springs near Sunriver, and the second at $2,500,000 in the Broken Top golf community in Bend. The Broken Top listing was on the market one day before securing a full-price offer. The Caldera Springs listing was new construction with an original list price of $2,185,000.
Deschutes County luxury listings over $3 million are stable at 30, with no pending or closed transactions this week or last. Two sales were pending as of the week ending February 27, and the year-to-date sales total is four.
Crook County luxury listings over $1 million had a strong week, with supply declining by 3 to 35. Two sales are pending in Brasada Ranch: the first at $1,825,000 on Brasada Ranch Road, and the second at $1,899,000 on Wooden Trestle Court. One transaction closed this week, also in Brasada Ranch, at $1,300,000 on Ranchview Road.
Deschutes County farm listings over $1 million increased by one to 14, with no pending or closed transactions.
Crook County farm listings over $1 million decreased by one this week to 11. The decrease was due to a pending sale NE of Brothers on Tackman Road, listed for $2,800,000. The Tackman Road listing is remote and sits on 3,190 acres with a BLM grazing permit and an undisclosed amount of creek irrigation.
A trend is emerging of buyers jumping on great properties, with single-digit marketing times. These quick contracts are not across the board, but educated buyers are ready to act fast when the right fit hits the market. The more specific your needs are, the more important it is to respond quickly. Still, we are experiencing early-season conditions, with increasing supply. Every week brings a different mix of possibilities, and that will continue for the next few months.
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