With just over six weeks until the Fourth of July, the summer season is in full swing. Considering that most residential sales take at least thirty days, and for higher-end homes, sometimes forty-five days or longer to close, I am always looking ahead and calculating activity four to six weeks in advance.
Typically, the Fourth of July sees a lull in activity as buyers take a break to enjoy the holiday, followed by an uptick in activity in mid-July, and then another lull at Labor Day. The final seasonal push occurs between the second week in September and early November. Breaking down the market in this manner shows just how short the peak season can be. This year, with inventory levels increasing to surpass those of recent years, everything is taking longer to materialize. The “feel” of the market can be deceiving, and this year's numbers remain robust, as confirmed by last week's analysis.
This morning, in Deschutes County, there are 372 single-family homes listed between $1 million and $2 million, an increase of 38 since I last reported this metric on May 2. Eighteen sales are pending, with a median listing time of 21 days. Last week, there were 21 pending sales at a median days listed of 43. Twelve properties closed with a median days listed of just thirteen. Last week, there were sixteen closed transactions with a median number of days listed at thirty-nine.
Ten more homes have been listed in Deschutes County between $2 million and $3 million since May 2, bringing the total to 103. This week, two pending sales have been on the market for 49 days before securing a contract, compared to one pending sale last week, which was listed for only three days. This week, we have two closed transactions, which is one more than last week’s single closed transaction.
Six more homes are listed over $3 million than two weeks ago in Deschutes County, with no pending or closed transactions. Last week, there were no pending sales, and one closed transaction in Tumalo listed for 365 days, and closed at $3,762,000.
In Crook County, there are sixty-seven homes listed over $1 million, an increase of eight from May 2. One pending sale, listed at $1,274,000, and one closed transaction, at $1,197,000, occurred during the week, with no pending or closed transactions reported last week.
It would be easy to interpret today's data as a slowdown in activity, which may very well be the case. However, I won’t be able to say that definitively for several weeks. Upon closer examination of the data, the only segments with reduced activity are those in Deschutes County exceeding $3 million and in Crook County exceeding $1 million. Typically, buyers in the higher price points take time deciding at this time of year as new listing inventory grows. As the summer progresses and inventory stabilizes, educated buyers begin to secure properties that are a standout fit for their needs. However, in the more competitive $1 million to $2 million segment, activity is steady. Whatever plays out, you will see the trends unfold here first!
