Today, the Federal Reserve is likely to drop the overnight rate by another 25 basis points despite inflation trending upward. However, mortgage rates this morning are up ten basis points from last week, with the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional loan at 6.92%. A decrease in the overnight rate is unlikely to have much impact on mortgage rates and won't help tamp down inflation either. Heading into 2025, I do not expect more Fed rate cuts for several months or longer. I also anticipate mortgage rates will be in the 6.5% - 7% range, slightly better than last year's rates during the peak of the selling season but elevated from early 2024. The two biggest factors impacting the Central Oregon housing market will be buyer demand and inventory levels.
This morning, there are 877 single-family homes for sale in Deschutes County, a decline of forty-eight from last week. Over the next several weeks, inventory will drop sharply as listings expire at the end of the year and sellers wait for increased spring activity to relist. Forty-four homes are pending this week at a median list price of $928,707, with sixty-three closed transactions at a median sale price of $775,096. The median days on the market for closed transactions was thirty-four, showing that desirable, well-priced homes are still moving
quickly. Activity is solid for this time of year, but including today, there are only nine business days left this year! Expect a decline in transaction volume over the next several weeks until we get settled into the new year.
Crook County homes listed for sale only decreased by four to 167. Inventory in the county has remained stubbornly low in the last few years, making significant reductions less likely as we head into winter. With five pending sales at a median list price of $349,000 and five closed transactions at a median sale price of $655,000, activity in Crook County remains consistent. Pending median sale days on the market were only thirty, with the closed days at forty-one.
Jefferson County inventory has remained low; this week, it only declined by one to ninety-eight. Two pending sales with an average list price of $413,700 and four closed transactions at an average of $480,791 are consistent with the last few weeks.
While transactions will continue throughout the end of the year and into January, this is unquestionably the slowest time of year, with several holidays breaking up the weeks. As inventory declines, many sellers are positioned well with less competition.
