The national average for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage this morning is 7.04%, down from 7.34% on this day last year. While many have hyped a rate pivot from the Federal Reserve as the trigger for lower rates in the mortgage markets, that has not been the case. And now that inflation is creeping back up, it remains to be seen how many more rate decreases the Fed will be comfortable making. The good news is stability and predictability in the markets, albeit at higher rates than many hoped for by now.
Deschutes County:
Twenty fewer single-family homes are listed this week in Deschutes County than last, with today's inventory showing 1,042 listings. Once again, there were more closed transactions than pending at 60 and 49, respectively. This week's average pending sale price was $759,164, with the average closed price at $832,230.
Year-to-date sales of single-family homes in Deschutes County are up eighty-four from last year at 3,010. The median sale price at this point in 2023 was -3.65% less than in 2022 ($660k) but this year is up +3.79% at $685k, the same median sale price at this point in 2022. Increased inventory has not been enough to improve sales volume significantly in the face of higher mortgage rates. All of this indicates flat growth heading into 2025. However, the impacts are not consistent across all price points.
Crook County:
The inventory of single-family homes in Crook County decreased by two, now at 176 listings. Eight closed transactions at an average price of $685,125, with four pending sales averaging $394,050, rounded out the week.
Year-to-date sales of single-family homes in Crook County are up twenty-nine from last year at 355. The median sale price at this point in 2023 was -4.7% less than in 2022 ($467k), but this year is up +5.4% at $469k, only a two-thousand dollar increase since 2022. While inventory in the county is up slightly from the last two years, it isn't enough to significantly impact prices. As long as mortgage interest rates remain near 7%, I do not anticipate much movement in sales prices for Crook County. However, like the rest of Central Oregon, the impacts are inconsistent.
Jefferson County:
The number of single-family homes for sale in Jefferson County decreased eight this week to 107, compared to 88 this week in 2022 and 78 this week in 2023. Six pending sales, at an average of $343,975, and four closed transactions, at an average of $423,725, are consistent with recent weeks, even though there is a more considerable variation in weekly numbers because of the smaller data pool.
Year-to-date sales of single-family homes in Jefferson County are 201, up eleven from 2023 but down considerably from 2022's 294. The median sale price in 2023, $387k, decreased by 3.25%, while the average price increased by +3.7%. The median sale price increase year-to-date for 2024 is +3.8%, or $402k. The median sale price in the county has been flat since 2022.
The data from Central Oregon shows a softening of sales volume with flat prices over the last two years. Mortgage rates may be down slightly, but at roughly 7%, many buyers are priced out of the market or at least out of the type of properties they desire. I do not anticipate economic conditions changing the dynamic much for 2025, but I am always open to being surprised! The good news is stability makes planning more straightforward. In most cases, buyers have time to consider several options without rushing into a purchase or competing with several other buyers. The current conditions may make fix-and-flip prospects more difficult, but for anyone with a more extended timeframe for ownership, conditions are excellent, with increased selection and motivated sellers. If crunching numbers appeal to you, please reach out, and I will be happy to run a personalized report on any market segment that interests you.
