The next significant news that could impact the housing market will be the Fed meeting and whether the overnight rate drops. Many predict another rate decrease, likely at no more than 25 basis points. However, while a decline in the overnight rate may impact credit card rates or car loans, it does not directly correlate to mortgage interest rates. Leading up to the aggressive 50 basis points rate decrease at the last Fed meeting, mortgage rates reached a low of 6.2%, but rates this morning are 7.04%. Last week, I touched on the activity in the bond market to explain this counter-intuitive move, with mortgage interest tied closely to the 10-year Treasury Note, which sits at 4.472% this morning. The 10-year Treasury needs to get closer to 4% or less to see an appreciable decline in mortgage interest rates. The Fed's limited tools and decreasing effect on our economy is a concern for bond investors as we wait to see where mortgage rates will trend in 2025.
Inventory levels in Deschutes County for single-family homes dropped 58 this week to 1067. Fifty-five pending sales and sixty-six closed transactions are one less than last week's numbers and lower than the previous several weeks.Home prices have remained stable, with median price reductions ranging from -4.88% in the active inventory to -6.06% for the closed transactions. This range of price reductions is consistent with trends over the past year. This week, the median active list price is $770,000, the pending price is $679,900, and the closed price is $670,950.
Crook County also experienced a drop in available inventory, now at 165 single-family homes for sale. Unlike Deschutes County, Crook County's activity remains consistent and strong, with seven pending sales and six closed transactions. The median active listing price of $599,900, pending price of $415,900, and closed price of $407,000 are all very close to trends over the last several weeks. Remember that the smaller transaction volume in Crook County and the median sale price can be impacted by Brasada Ranch sales, typically between $1.5M-$3M.
Not to be left out of the decrease in seasonal inventory, Jefferson County also saw a decline this week, with 115 single-family homes available for sale. Three pending sales for the week are lower than a typical week in the county, but a solid eight closings are up over previous weeks. This week, the median active list price is $494,000, the pending price is $358,400, and the closed sale price is $378,625.
Whether home sales pick up for the remainder of 2024 remains to be seen, and mortgage interest rates will heavily impact them. As we close out the year and head into 2025, inventory levels will drive the spring market. However, even this year's increased availability of homes for sale was considerably less than in years past. With roughly 5,000 new residents per year relocating to Deschutes County and more throughout Central Oregon, it is unlikely that conditions will change significantly. More often than not, the home you can afford that suits your needs deserves a close look. In my experience, waiting for conditions to change rarely produces better results.
