The drop in mortgage interest rates was a minor blip in the trajectory. This morning, rates for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage were 6.85%. Being under 7% is helpful, and rates should soften over the next several months. However, recent trends prove there is no direct correlation between Fed activity and mortgage rates. With the lending and real estate industries proselytizing on the pending rate "drop," it would be easy to hyper-focus on this metric. Rates certainly impact affordability, but rates and prices tend to move in opposite directions, much like the price/yield relationship with bonds. Many sellers are coming off their list price to secure contracts this fall, and buyers benefit. With significantly more homes for sale than in the last few years, conditions favor buyers.
Inventory in Deschutes County dropped to 1145 single-family homes this morning, down twenty-eight from last week. This week last year, there were 838 homes listed, making the selection this year significantly better for buyers and forcing sellers to adjust. Sixty-seven pending sales and forty-nine closed transactions show steady activity, if not a bit subdued from the pace of summer sales. This week's average pending sale price is $804,538, with the average closed sale price at $913,145.
Crook County's inventory climbed three to 184 single-family homes for sale, showing remarkable stability in the home supply. This week last year, there were 148 homes listed in the county. Seven homes are pending at an average list price of $490,535, with eight closed transactions at an average sale price of $557,112.
The housing supply in Jefferson County also shows remarkable stability. There are 117 homes listed, down only one from last week. This week in 2023, there were 83 listings. Five pending sales at an average list price of $459,000 and five closed transactions at an average sale price of $412,480 are consistent with the past several weeks in the county.
Putting price and interest rates aside, the increased inventory of homes for sale in Central Oregon is a big help for buyers. How much inventory declines this winter will be a sign for the 2025 housing market. If sellers feel more marketing time is required and leave homes listed for the winter, increased spring inventory will shape the market. We already see that accurate pricing is critical to selling homes, and I anticipate that will continue. Although approximately 5,000 new residents per year call Deschutes County home. Supply and demand are wildcards that can be difficult to quantify.
