Weekly pending sales across all three Central Oregon counties were strong this week, but inventory increased, which isatypical for this time of year. Many in the real estate industry have proselytized a drop in the overnight rate from the Federal Reserve as the relief needed to free up the market. However, rates this morning for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage are at 6.18%, nearly unchanged from before the last Fed meeting. Markets adjust based on predicted Fed actions and mortgage rates already priced in the Fed rate cut. Putting aside Fed activity and interest rates, consumer confidence dropped to 98.7, down from 105.6 in August. The reasons cited for the drop in confidence were declining jobs and rising inflation. For reference, the consumer confidence index was 132.6 in February 2020. There is little doubt that the upcoming presidential election has many on hold, awaiting the outcome in November.
While the weather lately has been gorgeous, winter comes quickly at this time of year. Homes sell throughout the winter months but at a slower pace than during the warmer months. These factors combine this fall to create a slower market than many anticipated. Regular readers of this market report know I see these conditions as an opportunity for buyers. Lower rates, significantly more inventory than in the recent past, and anxious sellers are creating options that have been unavailable for several years.
The dip in inventory last week in Deschutes County was short-lived. This week, 1261 single-family homes were listed, the same as two weeks ago. Pending sales were up seven to 71, while closed transactions were down considerably at 42. The median price change for pending sales was -7.95%, a considerable jump from drops in the 4-5% range for much of the summer selling season.
Crook County's home inventory increased nine this week to 182. Eight homes are under contract, and five transactions have closed. The median pending sale price was $437k, with a median price reduction of a whopping -15.1%—three of the five closed transactions sold at the asking price. The remaining two homes closed at slightly less than the asking price.
Jefferson County inventory increased by two, now at 120 single-family listings. Seven pending sales at a median of $309,900 and one closed transaction round out the week—the closed sale sold for $285,000, 87.69% of the original list price.
Many buyers and sellers wait for strong signals in the housing market to engage, but the best deals occur when the market slows. Waiting for prices or interest rates to align with a preconceived notion of what is correct pits consumers against each other and creates competition that negates much of the benefits. Housing is a solid long-term bet with a steadily growing population in Deschutes County and a well-qualified demographic arriving daily. Trying to time the market rarely gets the anticipated results. If you have been on the sidelines, I strongly encourage you to call your lender to see what today's rates do for your situation. Combined with seasonal falling prices and more inventory, the swing from a few months ago could be 100k or more in many situations. If mortgage rates continue to fall and inflation continues the upward trend, home prices in 2025 will surely increase. This fall is an opportunity for buyers that deserves a second look.
