This week, inventory of available single-family homes declined in all three Central Oregon Counties, a sign that buyer demand is outstripping homes for sale. Pending sales in Deschutes County dropped by five to seventy-five, with twelve in Crook County and four in Jefferson County. Pending sales are a great future indication of where the market is heading. In Deschutes County, the median days listed for the seventy-five pending contracts was fifteen, with a median price reduction of -2.97%. Other than an anomaly in the data from March 2023, this is the lowest amount sellers have reduced the asking price since early May 2022. Yesterday Afternoon the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 6.5%, slowly declining from recent highs of nearly 7% but still above this year's low of 6.19%.
The sixty-five sold homes in Deschutes County last week had median days listed of eight. In Jefferson County, the days on the market for sold homes was twenty-two, and in Crook County, fifteen. Crook County's median sale price adjustment of sold homes was +1.72%. Not only are homes selling quickly, but the gap between the sale and list price is narrowing, a clear sign of a tightening market. Last April 27, there were eighty-eight pending sales in Deschutes County and 401 active listings. However, by June, there was a drop in pending sales and a further drop into July and through year-end, with a couple of solid weeks mixed in. Considering the lack of building inventory, the decline in mortgage interest rates, and strong buyer demand, it is only a matter of weeks before the comparison of the YTD 2022/2023 numbers inverts. Year-to-date sales for 2022 single-family homes in Deschutes County were 1318, compared to 806 in 2023. Nationwide there was a moderate increase in inventory last week, but those trends have not appeared in Central Oregon.
While the Fed may have another rate hike up its sleeve (I expect one more 25 basis point hike at the next meeting), most lenders and analysts expect lower mortgage rates through the second half of 2023. Based on our low inventory and strong demand, buyers are not waiting. With the fear of ever-increasing rates off the table, the housing market appears to be picking up momentum. Whether that is because buyers are comfortable with current rates, assume a refi in the future, or are bullish on Central Oregon (likely all three), the results have created another competitive real estate market.
Our market is so diverse that it can be challenging to make comparisons of the mix of sold homes. Although the median pending sale price in Deschutes County for the week ending April 27, 2022, was 647k, compared to this week at 735K! Where did the drop in home prices go? For sellers, there is no reason to wait. Unquestionably, these conditions have applied pressure on buyers, and it looks likely that multiple offers could become typical again this summer. Fortunately, there is still enough breathing room to get bids accepted without competition, but moving quickly on a home you love is imperative. Multiple offers might not be the norm, but in many cases, more than one buyer is considering a property.
According to the Portland State University population forecasts, Deschutes County expects to add nearly 13,000 residents by 2025 and another 20,000 by 2030. With our rolling weekly average available inventory tracking at ~500 listings, it is a good bet that homes are a safe investment. Assuming three residents per household, the additional residents projected to relocate to our area would equal a full year of annual sales or more. Granted, some of those transplants will rent, but there is no question that buyer demand will outpace supply for the foreseeable future. There will always be homes for sale, and lending programs to help all types of buyers, so there is no need to panic. However, if you are waiting for a significant price drop, I am unsure what would drive that trend. Even a massive event in the overall economy is unlikely to be the catalyst as people leaving big cities would likely accelerate under those circumstances, not decrease.
I understand that many may interpret the data differently, and I am happy to compile any information you need to help make a decision. If waiting fits your schedule, please stay current with the tools available on EnjoyBendLife.com or reach out for anything I can do to help.