Higher mortgage interest rates over an extended period increase the housing supply. After nearly three years of rates around 7%, the supply of homes in Central Oregon has increased significantly from pandemic lows. While the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage is down slightly to 6.81% this morning, this is in the range of variability we have seen over the last several months.
This morning, there are 1,181 single-family listings in Deschutes County, an increase of 41 from last week. The high since I started tracking the weekly numbers in April 2022 was August 7, at 1,322. For reference, this week last year, there were 841 single-family listings. With three months to go until the typical peak inventory for the year, the volume of homes for sale this year will eclipse the highs of the last few years. However, activity is also strong, with 80 pending sales this week at an average list price of $849,224, compared to 71 at $837,579 on this week last year. Fifty-nine closed transactions at an average of $850,629 have been solid for the last few months, but it was eclipsed by 103 sales this week last year at an average of $857,240. While inventory may be rising, prices are firm, if not higher, than last year.
Crook County inventory increased by thirteen to 201 single-family listings, the highest since I started tracking the weekly data in 2022. There were three pending single-family sales this week at an average of $408,333 and eight closed transactions at an average of $782,362, showing steady activity relative to the last several weeks. This week last year, there were just 114 active listings, with seventeen pending sales at an average of $695,207 and nine closed transactions at an average of $842,182. Weekly variations can be misleading, so read next week's report, where I will provide a year-to-date analysis of the last three years to show how this year measures comparatively.
Jefferson County inventory remains somewhat muted at 117 single-family listings this morning, a decrease of three from last week. Eleven pending sales at an average of $454,291 and six closed transactions at an average of $446,533 are highs for the year. The peak inventory since 2022 in Jefferson County was 120 on September 25, 2024. This week last year, there were 80 single-family listings, three pending sales at an average of $548,500, and five closed transactions at an average of $577,700. The variability of price week-to-week in the smaller data of Jefferson County is typical and not indicative of falling prices, which will be clear in next week's year-to-date analysis.
Weekly analysis is an excellent tool for identifying trends early if the data is in context with year-to-date activity. So much can happen week to week that has nothing to do with larger trends, and there is no rhyme or reason for when homes at a particular price point will sell. Some weeks, more homes are sold at or below the median sale price, while other weeks, multi-million dollar homes close, skewing the numbers up. In the larger dataset of Deschutes County, much of this variation smooths out, but in smaller Crook and Jefferson Counties, the variation can be more noticeable. A detailed, specific analysis of individual neighborhoods and price points is the best way to evaluate a particular property. Please do not hesitate to reach out if you need information to help you make the best decision for your needs.
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