With only three weeks left in the year, and only fourteen business days on the calendar, the early indicators of what to expect for the housing market in 2026 are already emerging. A significant factor impacting housing in 2026 will be interest rates, and the Federal Reserve will announce today whether another 25-basis-point decrease is coming. The markets are anticipating a rate cut, even though Jerome Powell all but ruled it out in his narrative following the last meeting. While a cut today is anything but sure, mortgage interest rates have actually increased after each of the past cuts, and by the time it all washes out, I do not anticipate much movement. Rates have increased significantly lately, with the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage at 6.36%. Following this year's movement in mortgage rates, today's increase is likely indicative of the expected Fed cut. Go figure.
While rates in 2025 moved down considerably from the highs of 2024, there is little expectation that rates will continue to decline in 2026. Once everything settles out, I expect to see 30-year mortgages in the high 5% to low 6% range in 2026. A 6% interest rate may be higher than many hoped, but it is nearly 100 basis points below the average rate until the end of 2025. The improvement in interest rates will keep inventory capped, and likely lower than the highs reached this year.
Active listings in Deschutes County decreased by 28 to 968 this week. Pending sales improved by 12 to 49 after the first full week of business following the Thanksgiving break, averaging $784,235. There were 14 additional closed transactions this week, bringing the total to 59, with the sold-to-original-list price ratio at 92.76% and the average sale price at $851,615.
Year-to-date sales in Deschutes County in 2024 were 3,191, averaging $849,424. The total sales for the year were 3,345. Year-to-date sales in 2025 are 3,321, averaging $873,296. This year represents a 4.07% increase in volume and a 2.81% increase in price, which exactly matches the claimed rate of inflation.
Crook County inventory decreased by two this week to 172, one more than this week last year. There were five pending sales averaging $513,600, and five closed transactions averaging $513,600. The closed transactions sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 96.67%, with an average sale price of $531,800.
Year-to-date sales in Crook County in 2024 were 369, averaging $599,311. The total sales for the year were 382. Year-to-date sales in 2025 are 364, averaging $602,463. This year represents a 2.81% decrease in volume and a .52% increase in price.
The outlier this week is Jefferson County, which saw active listings increase by 5 to 127—two pending sales match last week's, at $599k and $600k. There were six closed transactions, with an average sold-to-original-list price ratio of 97.68% and an average closing price of $366,449.
Year-to-date sales in Jefferson County in 2024 were 281, averaging $429,617. The total sales for the year were 292. Year-to-date sales in 2025 are 311, averaging $426,532. This year represents a 10.67% increase in volume and a 7.2% decrease in price.
This year, more inventory, competition, and lower mortgage interest rates late in 2025 brought buyers out of the woodwork. This trend should continue into 2026, with the wildcard being how many buyers step up and whether inventory drops enough to put upward pressure on prices. At this point, I anticipate 2026 will be slightly better than 2025 in terms of sales volume, with extremely modest price increases. Some potential sellers have been hoping for another price spike, but the chances of that happening in 2026 seem like a long shot.
TL;DR: The Central Oregon housing market is healthy and stable, with only minor increases expected for 2026.
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