In this week's report, I will detail the Sisters market, showing the differences year-over-year. But first, a brief overview of the three counties of Central Oregon.
This morning in Deschutes County, the inventory of available homes for sale dropped below seven hundred for the first time since the first week of June, and it is now at 690. This morning's inventory is down thirty-one from this week last year. Fifty-four homes were placed under contract at a median price of $665,650, with another thirty-nine sold at a median price of $759,900. The median days on the market for active listings is seventy-six, forty-six for the pending sales, and twenty-two for the sold properties. Activity always picks up as the year winds down, although the recent drop in mortgage interest rates seems to have spurred some action. Many properties on the market for some time are getting snapped up as they compete better with the smaller pool of available listings. Seasonal declines in inventory and the filtering dynamic happen in any market. However, with our supply-constrained conditions, the filtering process is amplified.
Available inventory at this time of year, along with sales prices, is a leading indicator of the spring housing market. Last year, the inventory low point was in early March. With homes for sale trending below last year, it will be telling to see when inventory reaches the bottom in 2024. The meager inventory has moderated the impacts of higher interest rates as buyers have very few options, keeping prices firm. At least for the first half of 2024, I do not expect mortgage interest rates to change much. Many overly optimistic analysts predicting several rate cuts through 2024 have backed off that assertion as inflation has been up for four of the last five months, with the outlier a flat month. Jerome Powell has repeatedly indicated he will keep rates higher for longer in the fight against inflation and hasn't ruled out another increase. Wall Street's propensity for ignoring Powell's narrative is misguided. In short, I do not expect interest rates to change much for the coming year.
This morning in Crook County, there are 128 single-family homes for sale, down seven from last week. This week in 2022, there were 130 active listings. Watching the inventory in Crook County during these times of low availability, it appears the market has reached a low point and is not breaking considerably down from current levels. The low point for the year was in late April at 107 listings. However, sales at current prices have slowed, with another week of zero sales. That makes two out of the last four weeks in Crook County with zero closed transactions. Before the first week of zero sales in late November 2023, every week going back to July 2022 shows closed sales. Considering the time of year, I wouldn't put too much weight on the absence of closings, although it indicates slow sales for the county.
Jefferson County shows eighty active listings, down one from last week and the same as three weeks ago. This week last year shows eighty-three listings. Like Crook County, Jefferson County has reached a stasis point for the current low inventory environment. With five pending sales and three closings, Jefferson County shows typical activity for the week. Even though sales are down, price reductions are trending below 5% of the asking price. While there are certainly deals available in both Jefferson and Crook County, with such limited inventory, there is a hard floor on how low sellers are willing to go.
This morning in Sisters, thirty-eight active single-family listings are at a median asking price of $972,500. One pending sale at 585k, with five closed sales at a median of 890k, wrap up the weekly activity. There is tremendous diversity in price and the type of property listed in Sisters, giving buyers with specific needs few options.
For 2022 year-to-date in Sisters, 211 homes sold at a median of 750k and seven days on the market. For 2023, sales are down to 173, a median of 720k, and 26 days on the market. While this year may not be as red-hot as 2022, sellers have a solid advantage based on the remarkably low inventory. Without more homes for sale, it is unlikely conditions will change significantly in Sisters. Unique properties in great locations are still selling quickly. Of the available single-family homes, six are new construction at a median asking price of $812,400. Sisters is such a beautiful community with excellent access to hiking, the Pacific Crest Trail, Hoodoo Ski Resort, and the Metolius River that it is not surprising it is one of the most desirable locations in Central Oregon.
There are no active listings in nearby Camp Sherman, but ten sales year-to-date at a median of $765,500. Camp Sherman sits at the headwaters of the Metolius River in the shadow of Black Butte. Many homes available in Camp Sherman are on the Metolius River, and sales are brisk, so act fast if something comes up! No matter the market conditions, Camp Sherman properties do not sit for long.
Rounding out the Sisters options is nearby Black Butte Ranch, an idyllic resort community with golf and recreation opportunities abound. There are seven properties in Black Butte Ranch at a median sale price of $1,595,000, with one pending sale listed at 825k. Fourteen homes sold year-to-date at a median of $1,090,000 and forty days on the market. Contrasted with sixteen sales year-to-date 2022 at a median of $1,320,000 and seven days on the market, Black Butte Ranch activity is strong. Like Sisters and Camp Sherman, the properties available are diverse and limited, and I would refrain from reading too much into the lower median sale price. In communities like these, lower prices year-over-year have more to do with the mix of homes sold than price retreats.
Stay tuned next week as I break down the activity of another community in Central Oregon!