As expected, transactions were down this week due to the Thanksgiving holiday and reduced business days. The inevitability of the Central Oregon seasonal slowdown is ramping up, as buyers shift their priorities towards vacations and family. Transactions still happen, albeit at a slower pace, and fewer new listings hit the market, while many active listings expire and will not relist until spring. The valuable insight into how the 2026 market will shape up starts with following how low inventory drops, and when it begins to climb again, combined with interest rates as spring approaches. Next week is the last Federal Reserve Open Market Committee Meeting until late January, with all early indications pointing to a rate hold. The next several weeks in Central Oregon are the doldrums of the cyclical housing market.
Single-family listings in Deschutes County this week dropped by sixty to 996. Active listings have fallen below 1,000 for the first time since March 26 of this year, and are up 32 from this week last year. Thirty-seven pending sales, averaging $830,126, are nearly half of the previous week's. Thirty-five closed transactions are down 25 from last week, averaging $922,327, with the sold-to-original-list price ratio at 94.24%. The average sold price per square foot was $406.
Crook County's inventory decreased by only 4 to 174, the exact number of listings in the county this week last year. One sale is pending, listed at $375,000 after a 6.02% price decrease. Three transactions closed, averaging $575,544, with the sold-to-original-list price ratio at 94.26%. The average sold price per square foot was $288.
Active listings in Jefferson County are down by five this week to 122, up 17 from this week last year. Two sales are pending, listed at $349,000 and $365,000, with one of those listings dropping the price by 6.93% before securing a contract. Three transactions closed this week, averaging $414,865, with two dropping the list price before securing a contract, an average of 11.79%. The sold-to-original-list price ratio for the week was 92.84%. The average sold price per square foot was $291.
For most of 2025, the most significant change over the past several years was the increase in inventory. As mortgage interest rates began to fall from recent highs, more buyers stepped up, particularly this fall. Today, the national average 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage is 6.23%. All indications point towards slightly lower rates in 2026, which will bring more buyers to the table. It is unlikely inventory will reach 2025 levels, and with more competition from buyers, prices will increase. Sales this year show modest increases over 2024, maintaining the highs set in 2022. Over the next several weeks, I will break down the year-over-year sales volumes and prices for the different communities of Central Oregon, so stay tuned!
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