Happy New Year!
As we count down the hours to 2026, the national average for mortgage interest rates today on 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgages sits at 6.2% comapred to 7.07% on the last day of 2024. Inventory levels in Central Oregon are up slightly to moderately, depending on the county. A significant indicator of where the housing market will trend next year will be how low inventory levels drop over the next several weeks before supply begins to build toward the summer peak. As mortgage rates decline, it becomes easier for those with attractive mortgage rates to consider selling, particularly as rates dip below 6%. I expect transaction volume to increase in 2026, with prices either maintained or rising from 2025 levels.
Supply of actively listed single-family homes in Deschutes County declined by 30 this week, to 870. The last week of 2024, there were 848 listings. Twenty-eight pending sales occurred this week, down significantly from the previous week due to the holiday season. The average pending sale price was $766,871, and 18 of those transactions reduced the list price by an average of 6.77%. Thirty-five transactions closed, averaging $881,005, with the sold-to-original-list price ratio at 96.24%. The transaction volume of sold single-family homes in Deschutes County in 2022 was 4,130; in 2023, 3,162; in 2024, 3,345; and so far in 2025, 3,494. The average sale volume between 2014 and 2019 (the last time frame not impacted significantly by extraordinary forces) was 4,523. While transaction volume is still below average, each year since the 2023 decline has improved, and the Deschutes County housing market is healthier and more stable than in the past several years.
Single-family homes listed in Crook County decreased by four this week to 159. This week last year, the level was 155. Five pending sales averaged $916,980, and three of those listings reduced the asking price by an average of 9.97%. Five transactions closed, averaging $494,700, with the sold-to-original-list price ratio at 89.95%.
In Jefferson County, supply decreased by three to 124 single-family listings. In the last week of 2024, there were 99 listings in the county. While a 25% increase in supply is significant, Jefferson County's supply during and directly after the pandemic market took the biggest hit of the three Central Oregon counties. The level of supply and activity in Jefferson County is healthy and stable. Three sales are pending this week, averaging $594,300, with one showing a 4.14% price reduction before securing a buyer. Two transactions closed at $325,000 and $800,000, with a sold-to-original-list price ratio of 93.12%.
Heading into 2026, sellers have stable market conditions, which makes pricing for a sale easier. With prices sure to increase somewhat, pushing the envelope early in the year may produce a positive outcome. However, I anticipate mid-single-digit appreciation, and encourage anyone hoping to secure a buyer sooner than later to exercise some pricing restraint. Byers in 2026 will benefit from lower rates and potentially have more tools available, such as a 50-year mortgage term. Without wading too deeply into the pros and cons of a 50-year mortgage, it can be an effective short-term tool for some buyers.
I wish you and your families a happy and prosperous 2026! If you need anything, do not hesitate to reach out.
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