County offices in Central Oregon were closed on Thursday and Friday last week for Thanksgiving, sharply reducing the number of business days for the week. In turn, the number of closed transactions was down sharply for the week. With just two weeks of business days left in 2024, any transactions not already in motion with a closing scheduled for 2024 will occur in 2025! I am always amazed at how quickly the last month of the year flies by, and this year is no different.
This morning, the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage is 6.85%, showing recent stability in rates. After much speculation about lower interest rates for 2025, mid-to-high sixes are the range we can expect to see in the foreseeable future. If this rate prediction comes true, I expect slightly more inventory of homes for sale to continue, with reasonable price stability. Nationwide, there is a lot of variation in housing dynamics from location to location, and many reports look at national numbers to quantify the market. While there may be some utility in seeing the housing market from a 30,000-foot view, the market you are selling or buying in is all that matters.
The population growth in Central Oregon has had the most significant impact on home prices, along with reduced inventory. While homes for sale increased significantly this year, inventory did not increase enough to soften prices dramatically. Prices are up this year compared to 2023, even though growth from 2022 is flat. For sellers, these dynamics place extra emphasis on pricing correctly. There may be some bargains for buyers, but every market segment is different. Recently, I represented buyers on a home with multiple offers, showing that only some scenarios are conducive to below-asking price dynamics.
This morning, Deschutes County's inventory of single-family homes dropped below one thousand for the first time since May. Now, at 964 homes for sale, the big question will be how low inventory declines over the winter and how quickly inventory builds in spring. The holiday-shortened week shows just thirty-six pending sales and twenty-five closed transactions.
Crook County inventory climbed slightly to 174 single-family homes listed, up three from last week. One house was pending at a list price of $225,000 with zero closed transactions. This week, in 2023, there were 135 listings. While prices may not decline, additional inventory is helpful for buyers, with significantly more options at lower price points.
Jefferson County inventory is flat at 105 listings, down one from last week. One pending sale at $525k and two closed transactions at an average of $319k are typical of a short business week.
The strong seasonal nature of the Central Oregon housing market allows for considerable speculation between calendar years. Even during the strongest markets, the winter transaction volume drops, making it difficult to predict trends until springtime. Over the next several weeks, I will break down the different segments of our market, comparing sales volume and prices from recent years. The off-season can be an excellent opportunity for buyers if they find a home that suits their needs. Sellers can also benefit from reduced competition with other homes for sale. Whatever your timeline, I would be happy to help you learn about our market and develop the best strategy for your situation.
