Yesterday's Consumer Price Index report was a bucket of cold water for those clamoring for a rate pivot from the Federal Reserve. Most financial writers are comparing year-over-year inflation, but when viewed month over month and annualized over three and six months, the trends are rising, not decreasing, especially in the Core Inflation numbers the Fed looks at most closely. Yesterday's report removes any lingering hope for a March pivot and likely pushes any chance of a Fed decrease into June at the earliest. While it may only be the second week of February, the recent CPI report locks in the market for the first half 2024. Mortgage interest rates are not directly tied to the Fed overnight rate, and weekly volatility will likely continue. This morning, the 30-year national average for fixed-rate conventional financing is 7.13%.
Deschutes County single-family home inventory decreased by eight to 550, up twenty-eight from last year's week. In many cases, higher mortgage rates equate to more listings, and it will be interesting to see if available homes for sale increase now that the current rates are all but assured for the first half of the year. So far, buyer demand has remained steady, with sixty-eight pending sales this week and forty-four closed transactions.
Crook County homes for sale increased by three to 107, with strong pending sales of eleven and six closed transactions. Last year's week, Crook County had 131 active listings, so constrained supply is still a significant factor for the county.
Jefferson County inventory dropped five to seventy-eight. On last year's week, an inventory of seventy-one is very much in line with today's available homes. Jefferson County activity is remarkably stable year-over-year, with every indication that will continue.
Recently, I've read several reports of rising inventory, rising prices, or both. However, in most cases, the writers do not specify where the numbers come from or what they are measuring. Some include every home in the country, others exclude condos, and some focus on geographic regions. The largest, most stable data pool for Central Oregon is Deschutes County single-family homes, the basis for my reports. Crook and Jefferson County information is vital for anyone considering those counties, but the active, pending, and closed data for those areas fluctuates tremendously from week to week. However, for those of you that followed my breakdown of how each community in Central Oregon performed in 2023 compared to 2022, it was clear sales were down ~25%, while prices were down ~5%. Low inventory overcame reduced transaction volume to keep prices firm. 2024 is shaping up to be a carbon copy of 2023.
As I have mentioned ad nauseam in my reports, any downward pressure on home prices in Central Oregon will be preceded by rising inventory and lingering days on the market. Whether buyers, sellers, and market analysts stay laser-focused on a someday pivot or accept today's reality remains to be seen. Prices may not be heavily discounted, but they are also not rising aggressively. Looking through the pending and closed transactions, many buyers have negotiated some attractive deals. If you plan to make Central Oregon home for the foreseeable future, exploring today's options will likely reveal some very nice homes. Hopefully, the inventory will continue to gain steam as we head into spring and summer.
I am always available if you have any questions, and EnjoyBendLife.com has all the information you need for individual listings or market trends at your fingertips!