Several factors have combined recently, indicating that 2026 will be the biggest year in Central Oregon housing since interest rates spiked in the second half of 2023. First, the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage is 6.05% this morning, approaching the three-year low, and continuing the downward trend. Second, supply is steadily increasing, with all three Central Oregon counties reporting significant year-over-year increases. Anyone who engaged the housing market from 2020 to 2023 knows that severely constrained supply during that period made finding the right property challenging. More supply last year created more opportunities and, in turn, more sales. If buyer demand continues (it will), all indications point to more than 4,000 single-family sales in Deschutes County in 2026.
This morning in Deschutes County, there are 50 more listings than last week, bringing the total to 828. This week in 2025, there were 769 listings. Sixty-six sales are pending, up seven from last week. Only 26 of the pending sales reduced the asking price before securing a contract. Fifty-three transactions closed this week, with a sold-to-original-list-price ratio of 94.3%.
Crook County reports six additional listings this week, bringing the total to 153. This week in 2025, there were 144 listings. Four sales are pending this week, down five from last week. Only one of the pending sales reduced the asking price before securing a contract. Five transactions closed this week, up by two from last week. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 93.93%.
Jefferson County's inventory is up by one to 112 listings, an increase of fourteen from this week in 2025. Nine sales are pending, up by four from last week, and tying the most active week of 2026 so far. Five of the pending sales reduced the asking price before securing a contract. There were no closed transactions this week.
As new listings hit the market, the price-reduction ratio and days on market decline, and a higher percentage of new listings sell quickly without needing to reduce the asking price. Lenders are reporting an uptick in refinances as rates become more favorable, and sellers are entering the market in anticipation of a more favorable landscape for buyers this summer. While we are experiencing a taste of winter-like weather this week, spring is right around the corner, and longer days will mitigate the impacts of the weather as each day passes. Last weekend, I went on a hike and saw a bumblebee; interpret that however you wish!
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