Only ten days into 2024, activity has already begun to pick up in the housing market. Between all the speculation that the Fed will lower rates, Janet Yellen declaring a "soft landing" with no recession in sight, and with limited inventory, the year looks like it is shaping up to be interesting. While I am sure Yellen has an agenda with her messaging, I encourage you to look back at her track record before hanging your hat on her proclamation. However, the hype is making its way to housing.
In addition to my weekly breakdown of Deschutes, Crook, and Jefferson County housing activity, I will cover a 2023 year-in-review for Bend today. As the largest city in Central Oregon with a little over 100,000 residents, Bend makes up the majority of sales in Central Oregon. But first, let's take a look at last week's activity.
Crook County has 108 active listings this morning, up four from last week. There were nine pending sales at a median of 399k, an average of $464,077, and eighty-three days listed. The days listed for pending sales are ten less than the active listings. One home sold after 260 days on the market at 88,24% of the original list price. The sold property was on the north end of Juniper Canyon and sold for $525,000. Even though inventory in Crook County increased slightly this week, there are so few properties for sale that sellers are finding buyers for homes that have lingered on the market. This trend applies across Central Oregon.
Jefferson County saw an increase of five listings this week, now at Seventy-eight. However, the three pending and three closed sales were on the market for eleven and twenty-one days, respectively. The median pending sale was $399,000, and the closed sales were $445,861.
Deschutes County inventory decreased again this week and is now down to 599. With the major holidays behind us, pending sales picked up to fifty-six at a median of $641,400 and an average of $768,308. Forty homes closed last week at a median of $689,000 and an average of $812,655. Active listing's median days on the market are eighty-nine, pending is fifty-six, and sold is forty-four. As a recap, Deschutes County single-family home sales in 2023 were down 23.5%, with the median sale price of $665,000, a 2.2% drop from 2022. The average sale price was $812,278, a 1.7% drop from 2022. Inventory on this week last year was twenty-six fewer than this year, but prices this week are up considerably. The median pending sale price for this week in 2023 was $567,400, with the average at 720k.
For those of you who have followed my 2023 year in review for the different cities in Central Oregon, the Bend numbers won't be surprising. The trends of fewer sales and slightly lower prices for the year-over-year comparison continue in Bend.
In Bend in 2023, there were 1930 single-family sales, a 22.9% decline from the 2502 sales in 2022. The median sale price decreased by 15k to $750,000, a 1.96% decline. The average sale price dropped 1.6% to $914,922.
Condo and townhome sales in Bend declined 17.2%, with 197 closed transactions, down from 238 in 2022. However, the median sale price increased by 4.28% to $585,000, while the average of $695,559 declined by $93 or 0.013%. With condos and townhomes only making up 10% of the sales in Bend, this market segment is in short supply, keeping prices firm. Many condo buyers are looking for turnkey properties suitable for rentals and requiring less maintenance than a single-family home. I expect market forces to keep activity strong.
Ninety-four manufactured homes on land sold in Bend in 2023, down from 117 sales in 2022. The median sale price was $422,500, a 2.87% drop from 2022. The average sale price was slightly lower at $422,148, reflecting a 7.06% drop from the 2022 average. Consistent with the rest of Bend, sales declined 19.6%.
One thousand eight hundred forty-seven single-family homes in Bend sold below $2M at a median price of $729,000 and an average of $835,862. The price declines were 2.14% for the median and 1.6% for the average. While Bend home prices were stable from the peaks of 2022, the data shows that most Bend sales are happening well below $1M. Sales below $2M reflect a 22.8% decline from 2022.
Eighty-three homes in Bend sold over $2M in 2023, a 23.1% decline from 2022. The median sale in this price bracket was $2,395,000, a 3.52% decline, and the average sale was $2,674,239, a drop of 1.2%. Limited inventory is the most significant limiting factor to sales above $2M. Many buyers in this price point have specific needs that are difficult to find in Bend. As 2024 unfolds, I expect our supply-constrained market to continue, challenging the higher price points. When a home fits your needs, waiting has proven to be a mistake with so much buyer demand. Once a great property sells, knowing when another suitable home will hit the market and at what price is difficult.
Across all property types in Bend, there were 2,244 sales in 2023, a decline of 22.3% from 2022's lofty 2,889 sales. The average sale was $867,107, with a median of $720,000. Declines were 1.8% and 1.37%, respectively. Total sales across all property types in Deschutes County were 3758 at a median of $629,900 and an average of $758,548. The median days of closed transactions in Deschutes County was twenty-two, with Bend coming in slightly lower at nineteen. It is easy to see that throughout Deschutes County, sales happen quickly, even with a slowdown in sales volume. Bend prices and buyer demand surpass the county by a fair margin, and that trend will continue.
On the southern end of Deschutes County, I still have Sunriver and Three Rivers South year-end reviews coming. Expect Terrebonne and Madras reports soon on the north and into Jefferson County. Each region of Central Oregon has its characteristics. Still, the overall trends in 2023 were the same: fewer sales and slightly lower prices. Some analysts have predicted a nationwide increase in homes for sale in 2024. However, here in Central Oregon, inventory remains low, and Deschutes County inventory is in decline. A lot will happen over the next several months, with the beginning of this year looking like a carbon copy of last year with low inventory, firm prices, and higher interest rates.
This morning, the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 6.8%. Yesterday, I read a prediction that mortgage interest rates will be 6.6% by year-end. That is a far cry from the pivot the industry is pushing. Staying in contact with your lender and recognizing the right home for you are vital in this environment.
Much research and my local knowledge go into helping my clients find their perfect fit. I am always happy to go above and beyond to help you make the right decision. Don't hesitate to contact me with any questions about housing in Central Oregon!