Welcome to 2024! Now that we are officially in the new year, the two most significant impacts on our housing market will be buyer demand and inventory levels, which drove the last few years of rising prices.
In addition to my weekly breakdown of Deschutes, Crook, and Jefferson County, I will dive deeply into Prineville and Brasada Ranch today. Over the last three weeks, I highlighted Sisters, Redmond, and La Pine, and in the following weeks, I still have Madras, Bend, Sunriver, Terrebonne, and Three Rivers South on my list.
Did prices rise in 2023? Let's first look at Deschutes County single-family homes in 2023 compared to 2022.
In 2022, 4,128 single-family homes sold in Deschutes County at a median of 680k and nine median days on the market. The average days on the market were twenty-eight, which is a better metric for evaluating the super-charged year of sales. As hot as sales were in 2022, each year since 2015 had more sales. With interest rates rising steeply at the end of 2022, I look at the year more as the start of the slowdown than a hot year. While sales may have slowed, 2022 produced peak pricing for Deschutes County. In 2023, Deschutes County had 3,150 sales at a median of 665k, with the median days on the market at twenty-two and forty-eight average days listed. That is a 23.7% drop in sales volume and a 2.2% price drop. 2023 sales volume was the lowest since 2010, when sales were 3,197, and the median sale price was 176k. In 2010, Central Oregon was still in the throes of the housing crash, with increased inventory and weak buyer demand.
This morning in Deschutes County, there are 607 single-family homes listed, down fifty-four from last week. The median list price is $749,900 at eighty-five median days on the market. Thirty-three homes are pending at a median of 599k and thirty-six days on the market. Thirty-one homes sold in Deschutes County at a median of 700k and sixty-five days on the market. Volume for the last week of the year was typical for the holiday-fractured week and slightly exceeded this week in 2022. Many listing contracts expire at year-end, and the significant drop in homes listed is typical at the start of the year. Many sellers hold off on listing until the peak selling season approaches, and I expect inventory to continue to decline due to fewer listings combined with sales. The low point in 2023 was 485 listings on March 1.
Jefferson County inventory declined to seventy-three this morning, down seven from last week. One home is pending in Crooked River Ranch at 649k and thirty days listed. No homes closed in the last week.
Before we evaluate Prineville, let's look at Crook County for the week and compare 2022 and 2023.
Crook County has 104 listings, a drop of twelve from last week, at a median of $564,450, and ninety-seven days on the market. There are three pending sales at a median of 307k and forty-four days listed, with two closed transactions at a median of 330k and sixty-four days on the market.
In 2022, there were 431 sales in Crook County at a median of 455k and twenty-one days on the market. In 2023, there were 357 sales at a median of $449,015 and forty-nine days listed. The 17.2% drop in sales volume is considerable, but the 1.3% price drop is negligible.
While Crook County and Prineville are inseparable, Brasada Ranch skews the numbers skyward. This morning, eighty-two single-family homes are listed in Prineville at a median of $471,400 and ninety days listed, compared with Brasada Ranch's seven listings at $1,490,000 and 127 days on the market. Three homes are pending in Prineville (the same homes reflected in the Crook County numbers above), with no pending or closed sales in Brasada Ranch last week.
In 2022, Prineville had 365 sales at a median of 435k and twenty-one days on the market. In 2023, sales dropped to 296, but the median sale price was only down two dollars fifty cents! Under normal circumstances, an 18.9% drop in sales volume would equate to lower prices, but with so few homes for sale, that has not occurred.
Brasada Ranch closed thirty-three homes in 2022 and thirty-two in 2023, and the median dropped from $1.3M to $1,182,500. Looking at the sold properties, the mix was more modest in 2023, with fewer large trophy homes sold. Comparing apples-to-apples in Brasada Ranch, the pricing in 2023 was consistent with 2022.
In the first half of 2023, prices were down in Deschutes County by nearly 6%, but as the year progressed, the gap narrowed to our year-end drop of 2.2%. As illustrated above, some neighborhoods and cities in Central Oregon fared even better with the year-over-year comparisons. As the new year unfolds, Deschutes County inventory is down five from this week in 2022, indicating another year of tight inventory. Whether we begin building inventory, drop further, and when we reach the low point will be good leading indicators for what is in store. Granted, a big shakeup in the overall economy could derail the current trends, just like the sudden rise in interest rates in late 2022 stalled our record-breaking pandemic-fueled market. However, just like our El Niño winter makes the chances of catching up on snowfall increasingly unlikely, today's low inventory makes the chances of an over-supply of homes for sale a long shot.
Stay tuned next week for another deep dive into the Central Oregon Housing market!