Today, I wrap up my year-end reports focusing on Madras and Terrebonne sales in 2023. I looked at the Sisters year-over-year comparisons just before the end of last year in my December 13 report. Followed by Redmond on December 20, La Pine on December 27, Prineville and Brasada Ranch on January 3, Bend on January 10, Sunriver and Three Rivers South on January 17, and Caldera Springs and Crosswater last week. You can find all these reports at www.EnjoyBendLife.com/blog/ for reference and comparison.
Inventory of single-family homes in Deschutes County declined again this week, now at 566, down twelve from last week. Fifty-eight pending sales at a median of $634,900 occurred in the past seven days, with thirty-three closed transactions at a median of 700k. This week last year, inventory showed 521 active listings with fifty-seven pending sales and 40 closed transactions at a median of $598,418. The median price reduction last year was 9.88% compared to 5.48% this year. Usually, lower inventory would equate to higher prices. However, last year, rising interest rates at the Federal Reserve brought a lot of uncertainty to the housing market, and many sellers were sitting back. Buyers were making lower offers that, in many cases, were accepted, dropping the median price somewhat. With 8.67% more listings this year, prices are up 16.97%! I do not expect prices to rise to double digits for 2024, but at this point in the year, buyer demand feels more substantial than last year, even though transaction volume is similar. Available inventory will impact price trends the most, but it seems highly unlikely we will see a spike large enough to temper prices in the first half of the year.
Crook County inventory declined to 102 single-family listings at a median of 599k, down one from last week. Eight pending sales at a median of 382k, with four closed transactions at a median of 441k, is similar to last year's week. However, unlike Deschutes County, Crook County inventory on this week last year was up 30.3% at 133. With even lower inventory and steady demand, I expect Crook County pricing to remain firm. Although looking at the lower-priced properties in Prineville, many have reached a ceiling on price and are not breaking past the 400k threshold. This morning, nineteen properties in Crook County for sale are less than 400k, nearly 20% of the market.
Again this week, Jefferson County inventory is remarkably stable, with seventy-seven single-family homes listed, just one more than last week. Two homes are pending at an average of $326,500, with two sold at an average of $449,500.
The city of Madras, located in Jefferson County, sits at the northern portion of Central Oregon, the gateway to Lake Billy Chinook, and only an hour twenty-three-minute drive to Mt. Hood or an hour fifteen to Mt. Bachelor. This morning, fifty-one single-family homes are listed in Madras at a median of 419k, with one pending sale (318k) and one closed transaction (289k) for the week. In 2023, 129 closed single-family homes sold, down from 196 in 2022, a decrease of 34.2%. The median sale was 360k, a drop of 6.1%.
Terrebonne, the spectacular Smith Rock State Park home, is located on the northern edge of Deschutes County, only eight minutes driving time from Redmond. This morning, there are twenty-five active listings in Terrebonne at a median of 590k, with two pending sales (546k) and one closed transaction in Crooked River Ranch at 610k. Not surprisingly, Terrebonne sales in 2023 were down 27.7%, with 73 closed transactions. However, unlike most of Central Oregon, the median sale price of 620k reflects a 5.98% increase, with the $675,247 average a 9.7% increase over 2022. Much of Terrebonne has sweeping views of the Cascade Mountain Range and is near thriving Redmond, although with a more laid-back vibe. It is no wonder demand remains high for Terrebonne.
In Deschutes County, the most populous county in Central Oregon with nearly 210,000 residents, 40% of the active listings reflect a price reduction. In an average market, closer to 30% would be typical, and just a few weeks ago, nearly half of all sellers had reduced their asking price. While price reductions may indicate a softening market, in Central Oregon, price reductions indicate sellers starting high because of strong buyer demand. After some time listed, and with feedback from showings, sellers adjust their price to find a buyer. Only looking at price reductions or raw data can be misleading. Anyone who has lost out on a home to another more motivated buyer knows that desirable homes find buyers and do not linger. So far, 2024 shows no sign of abatement in demand or pricing. Without exception, anyone who purchased five years ago has tremendous equity in their home. What do you think things will look like five years from today?