This morning there are 860 single-family homes listed for sale in Deschutes County, -9.2% less than this week last year. The median list price of the active inventory is 840k, up from 778k. The median days listed this year is forty-seven, up eleven from last year. At this time last year, the market was slowing after a spike in homes for sale that corresponded with rising mortgage interest rates. However, the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage was 5.87% compared to 6.88% yesterday afternoon. Still, today's market has been remarkably stable compared to last year, when sellers adjusted to fewer buyers than in 2021 and the first half of 2022.
Once the housing market began the typical spring increase in activity this year, the sales volume remained consistent with sales from the second half of 2022. There is little doubt that higher mortgage interest rates have sidelined many buyers, reducing sales from the 2021 and early 2022 frenetic peaks. Although, the lack of inventory has been a contributing factor.
Year-to-date 2022, there were 2462 sold single-family homes in Deschutes County compared to 1674 this year. But, those comparisons are very much apples and oranges when considering the market conditions and buyer sentiment. From July 20, 2022, through year-end, there were 1667 sales at a median of 661k and twenty-two days on the market. The second half of 2022 looks strikingly similar to the first half of this year, with 1674 sales to date at a median of 645k and twenty days on the market for closed transactions. Barring any market-shocking events between now and year-end, I anticipate approximately 3500 sales for the year.
For perspective, my data for Deschutes County sales goes back to 1997, showing 2003 as the first year sales exceed 3000 total transactions. That was the beginning of the housing bubble of that era, and interestingly mortgage interest rates mid-year were 5.26%. After a significant slowing in late 2006, the next years with total sales above 3000 were 2010-2013. From 2014-2019 sales were in the 4000s before the massive spikes of 2020-2021, with sales exceeding 5000. Last year's total sales were 4130, and mortgage interest rates mid-year were 5.7%.
Smoothing the data from 1997 through today is of little utility as market conditions, population growth, and the entire socioeconomic landscape has changed dramatically over the years in Central Oregon. Commercial property vacancy rates in large west coast cities are approaching 30%, and working from home is a part of the lexicon previously reserved for sick days. I frequently hear people talk about returning to a "normal" market, and many of the data points above illustrate how difficult it is to identify what that means. Housing is in continuous transition, new residents are targeting Central Oregon, and factors like short-term rentals have clouded market dynamics.
So, what is normal today? While I cannot answer that meaningfully, I suggest focusing on your long-term goals and working with what is available. Recently mortgage interest rates have been a significant challenge, and it is undoubtedly correct that there have been some short-term spikes. However, the market has been stable for the last several months, and conditions are unlikely to change dramatically up or down. Typically, the median sales price reduction falls at -5%, which looks to continue. That doesn't mean that every home is subject to a five-percent decrease, but it does give some insight into home sale prices relative to the asking price.
In the stock market, there has been a lot of talk about decreased corporate earnings reported in recent data. However, that data is all stale, and stock analysts focus on future earnings. The reduced earnings reported today have already been priced in and do not indicate things to come. Most analysts expect growth in 2024 and beyond, which also applies to housing. It is understandable to be concerned about overpaying for real estate, and careful due diligence is an important step. But, worrying that today's prices will collapse soon is not supported by the data or the overall economy. Buyers and sellers choosing to remain in Central Oregon may have important considerations that make the timing of a sale or purchase essential. However, for out-of-town buyers looking to make Central Oregon home, finding the right property is more of a concern than price. Anyone actively searching for a property in Central Oregon can speak to the diversity of our inventory and the difficulty in finding the perfect home. When the right house comes up, waiting might not be the best option.
My knowledge of Central Oregon housing, neighborhoods, and market trends is unmatched, and I can help you find your perfect home. I regularly provide detailed analyses of specific properties for buyers and sellers looking for assistance evaluating our market. If you need broader breakdowns of the market, my website has all the tools you need to do your own research. Market Trend Reports provide detailed analyses of the active inventory by zip code, and many of my property search pages include sold data to keep you abreast of recent activity. Or, use the home valuation tool to give you an immediate price range for a specific property. Market Trend Reports are updated weekly, and the other data on EnjoyBendLife.com is updated every fifteen minutes! Whether you call me or use the tools available on my website, I always strive to provide everything needed to make the best decision for your needs.