This morning, the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage is 6.82%, the lowest since early May. For reference, on January 6, 2025, the 30-year average was 7.16%. Thirty-four basis points may not be a massive decrease, but every little bit helps, and the markets respond with more activity as rates fall below seven percent. The consumer confidence index fell to 93.0 in June from 98.4 in May. If the trend continues, it may provide Jerome Powell with enough indication of a softening labor market to fulfill his promise of two Fed Fund Rate decreases in 2025. As inventory growth in Central Oregon slows, if mortgage rates approach 6.5%, I anticipate robust sales to close out 2025. As last week's data showed, the gap in sales volume has closed this year, with identical numbers in Deschutes County for 2024 and 2025 year-to-date. A lot can happen between now and the next FOMC meeting, so stay tuned for the market trends.
Deschutes County added ten new single-family home listings to its inventory this week, bringing the total to 1,543. The median list price is $844,500, with an average of $1,145,488. Pending sales remain consistent at 80 for the week at a median of $744,450 and an average of $899,498. While the median days listed increased to 29 for pending sales, considering the slower inventory growth, it isn't surprising, as buyers begin to consider homes listed for longer periods. However, the 64 closed transactions this week show a median list time of 19 days, a median closed price of $704,500, and an average of $782,843. The average price reduction from the list price for the closed transactions was -4.35%. The average closed price per square foot for the week was $381, compared to the year-to-date average of $673.This week's median price per square foot was $341, which compares more closely to the YTD median of $370. The discrepancy between the weekly and YTD closed price per square foot shows how much variation there can be in the weekly numbers.
Crook County's inventory increased to 239, a rise of eight single-family homes from last week. The median list price is $685,000, with an average of $1,045,990. There were only two pending sales this week at $425,000 and $550,000, with neither property decreasing the list price before securing a contract. Eight transactions closed at a median of $430,250 and averaged $545,300. Four of the eight closed transactions reduced the price by an average of -3.54%. The average closed price per square foot for the week was $352, compared to the year-to-date average of $314.
In Jefferson County, the inventory of single-family homes increased by four to 122 listings. The median list price of the active inventory is $499,900, with an average of $614,044. Four pending sales have a median price of $462,000 and an average price of $499,750, with three of those pending sales reducing the price by an average of 13.42%. The price reductions to secure a contract for these three properties were significant: the first dropped the list price to $650,000 from $795,000, the second to $479,000 from $525,000, and the last to $425,000 from $489,900. Seven transactions closed this week, with a median price of $516,000 and an average price of $629,714. The average closed price per square foot for the week was $288, compared to the year-to-date average of $267.
The weekly numbers vary significantly based on the mix of homes placed under contract and those that have closed. Deschutes County's substantially lower price per square foot this week is an anomaly that does not indicate a broader trend. The average weekly closed price per square foot has been over $400 for 19 of the 27 weeks of the year to date. Last week's data showed that closed prices had returned to the trend line at this point in 2024, after beginning 2025 with gains over the previous year. Activity typically slows during the Fourth of July holiday, but this week shows steady activity. With inventory growth slowing considerably and mortgage rates softening slightly, we appear poised for steady activity through the remainder of the summer. For smaller markets, such as Jefferson County or properties in outlying areas with intense competition, price is a significant factor in determining whether offers come in for sellers.
Tune in Friday for the Central Oregon Luxury Market Report to see how the high-end housing market is performing compared to the broader market. I will provide a breakdown, stripping out homes in Deschutes and Crook Counties that exceed $1M, to show precisely how the segments above and below this price point behave. Still, there is considerable value in reporting trends across all price points, which I will continue to do here every Wednesday.
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