Real estate activity in Deschutes County for single-family homes remains strong, with seventy-eight pending sales and seventy-seven closed weekly transactions. More importantly, the active listings only increased by twenty-five to 787, twenty-two less than this week last year. The year-over-year weekly difference in inventory may be small, but the available homes for sale continued to rise last year and peaked at 972 on August 10. Rising inventory is likely for a few more weeks, but it is increasingly unlikely that we will see the same surge in available homes for sale as last year. Home sales are down by 737 compared to 2022 totaling 1431 year-to-date. I do not expect our yearly sales of 2023 to surpass last year's lofty 4,129, although the year-over-year comparisons should narrow considerably. The biggest unknown will be the impact of higher mortgage rates on buyers, which so far in 2022 has been less of an issue than many expected. The steady influx of new residents coming to Central Oregon seemingly offsets any slowdown due to tighter credit.
While the inventory of homes in Deschutes County has slowed, in Crook and Jefferson Counties, available homes have reversed, with fourteen fewer than last week in Crook and three fewer in Jefferson than the previous week. Sales and median sale prices are down in Crook and Jefferson County, but decreased homes for sale should increase prices through the second half of 2023, barring a slowdown in the current sales pace.
The next Fed meeting doesn't take place for another month, scheduled for July 25-26, but expect another 25 basis point hike in the overnight rate at that meeting. Mortgage News Daily reported the 30-year fixed-rate national average for a conventional mortgage at 6.92% yesterday afternoon, and with 50 basis points in hikes by the Fed expected by year-end, it seems obvious mortgage rates will surpass the 7% threshold in the coming months. Rising rates have taken some wild volatility from the mortgage markets and replaced that with stable and high. I expect rates to continue recent trends until the next Fed meeting, so keep in close contact with your lender to avoid being caught off guard. I strongly encourage anyone considering a purchase in the remainder of 2023 to get pre-approved now.
In most cases, a pre-approval is good for six months, and while you might not be able to lock in rates for that long, a completed pre-approval allows your lender to run accurate numbers based on the daily rate. Most importantly, your lender can respond immediately with a pre-approval letter if you want to make an offer. Not every property is subject to multiple offers and single days on the market before securing a pending sale, but our market is still moving quickly. Scrambling to provide financial documents at the last minute is an inconvenient hassle, and in a multiple-offer scenario, a strong offer should include your financing approval. The better prepared you are, the better your chance of getting your desired home! Anyone who has made multiple offers that didn't work out knows what a draining experience it can be. Losing out on a great property after searching for months is never fun. Please let me know if you have any questions about a strategy for your specific needs. There are myriad ways of presenting an offer with a strong chance of being accepted, and in many cases, it isn't necessarily all about price.
I regularly sort through all available homes in our MLS on behalf of my clients and have been surprised by some of the recent pending sales. Identifying a property as overpriced or undesirable and seeing it under-contract days later happens constantly. I remind myself that every buyer is different; one person's unwanted home is another's castle. For properties that have been on the market for a while and do not have buyers circling, you might have the time to contemplate and enter into negotiations. However, most reasonably priced homes (relative to the neighborhood, etc.) will move, and in many cases, when you least expect it.
Our supply-constrained market creates a sense of urgency for today's buyers. While I spend considerable time opining about quick sales and the competitive conditions, 2023 is on pace to be the first year since 2013 where sales do not exceed 4000+ homes. For reference, 2020 and 2021 exceeded 5000+ sales. A doubling of the 1431 year-to-date sales of single-family homes in Deschutes County would be the lowest sales volume since 2009 when sales totaled 2,844. In the catastrophic collapse in 2008, the sales volume was 2,043. Sales volume in 2007 was 2,703, in contrast to 5,369 sales in 2005 and 4,002 sales in 2006.
Looking at sales volume from years passed provides little relevance to today's market because of population growth and migration from large west coast cities to places like Central Oregon. But, here is an interesting metric; The median sold price in 2009 was 199k compared to today's median year-to-date median sale price of $637,500. That is an increase of over 220% in fifteen years! It isn't easy to imagine another 200% increase in home prices over the next fifteen years. Still, home prices are unlikely to decline, with an expected Deschutes County population growth of thirty-five thousand people by 2030.
I am always available to discuss market conditions if you like to examine the data. But if you want to buy or sell your home and don't like getting deep into the statistics, I am happy to assist without nerding out on numbers! Whether you are considering improvements before a sale or renovations to a home you might want to purchase, I know how to help you plan the best approach. I can also provide local contractors to give you specific timelines and cost breakdowns when ready—my years of experience in housing are at your disposal.