This morning, the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 6.19%, up slightly from a low of 5.99% on February 24. On January 21, 2025, the rate was 7.05%. While the trend is lower and undoubtedly helping buyers, the 6% threshold has been stubborn. With the new Fed Chair Kevin Warsh set to take the reins from outgoing Chair Jerome Powell on May 15, the appointment still needs Senate confirmation. The likelihood of Powell cutting rates again before the end of his term is low, and there is every reason to believe Warsh will be cautious before enacting any changes. Unrest in the Middle East could throw a wrench in the gears, but a rate cut before the end of the year under Warsh isn't out of the question. However, for mortgage rates this summer, it is likely that current levels will hold for the foreseeable future. Keep in mind that a spike in yields on the 10-year Treasury followed past Fed rate cuts, and it has taken time for markets to settle after Fed activity.
Takeaway: Mortgage rates today are favorable and unlikely to change dramatically until the third quarter of 2026.
This week in Deschutes County, the biggest inventory spike of the year occurred, up 49 from last week to 902 single-family listings. Seventy-five pending sales are up three from last week, with the average pending list price at $852,743. Forty-nine transactions closed at an average of $798,534, and a sold-to-original-list-price ratio of 97.24%.
Crook County inventory is stable at 169, the same as last week. The build-up to peak inventory occurs later in smaller Crook County, a trend that has persisted for years. Twelve pending sales are also the same as last week, with the average pending sale price at $701,800. The pending average is $180k higher than last week, but two Brasada Ranch listings just under $2 million skewed the results. Two transactions closed this week: $435k on Tyler Street and $475k on Martingale, just west of Main Street. The Tyler Street listing closed above the asking price, and the Martingale home just below the list price.
Jefferson County's inventory remains tightly clustered around the 110 mark, exactly where it is this morning, up two from last week. Four sales are pending, averaging $522,249, down four from last week. Five transactions closed this week, down one from last week, and averaging $424,790, up from $366,491 last week. The average price reduction before securing a contract this week was 1.04%, with the sold-to-original-list-price ratio at 97.67%.
Activity in 2026 has been steady, but has yet to really take off. I suspect some are sitting back to see what develops. Once the trajectory of mortgage interest rates becomes more apparent, with continued inventory growth, I suspect activity will increase. I still anticipate more sales in 2026 than in 2025 and the most since 2022. The market remains stable, but relatively modest activity and growing supply are keeping sale prices in check.
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