By every significant metric, the Central Oregon housing market is heating up. In Deschutes County, buyer demand outpaced new listings, and inventory dropped by twelve, now at 529 single-family homes. Crook County inventory was flat at 116; in Jefferson County, the available homes for sale dropped two, now at sixty-six. Moreover, all six pending sales in Jefferson County over the previous seven days went under contract at full price. In Crook County, five of the eleven pending sales reduced the price by a median of -4.65%, and in Deschutes County, twenty-nine of the seventy-nine pending sales reduced the price by a median of -5.14%. However, Deschutes County pending sales days on the market jumped slightly to fourteen. On February 1 in Deschutes County, the pending sale ratio of price decreases to total contracts was 57.9% compared with this week's 36.7%, a clear indicator that sellers are zeroing in on market pricing and buyers are chomping at the bit. Two of the seven homes I tried to schedule client showings for this week were pending after being listed for months.
Available homes for sale, days on the market before securing a contract, and the percentage of price reductions are the most predictive metrics concerning market dynamics. Without an increase in inventory and a decrease in days on the market, sellers have little incentive to reduce their asking price, assuming the property price reflects the market. When very few options exist in a particular neighborhood or price point, sellers can command higher and higher prices, and buyers are left either paying those prices or waiting. In 2008, prices dropped significantly and stayed depressed for some time, clearly indicating the market bottom. In this cycle, our "bottom" may have been the slowdown last fall and into the first weeks of 2023. While I fully expect the Federal Reserve to raise rates another 25 basis points in early May, most experts expect a pivot or pause for the year's second half. Some analysts believe more rate hikes that last longer is the strategy the Fed should follow to reign in inflation and disengage from the past zero-interest rates policy. Still, it seems unlikely the Fed will act that aggressively. With a rate pivot or pause already factored in by most lenders, we might see rates in the upper 5% range by peak season. If so, expect the already hot market to get even hotter.
If you are following national real estate news, you've likely read that days on the market are increasing, prices are down, and inventory is up in the Western US. However, astute readers of my weekly report know that has not happened in Central Oregon. Last week was the first time since last October that the median price of actively listed homes in Deschutes County moved into the 700k range, now at 735k. This week's median list price is 749k. While this is a significant drop from April 2022's 825k, the market is heating up. After a scorching first half of 2022, the median list price finally declined from the 800k range into the 700k territory on July 6 and then into the 600k territory on October 5, 2023. If these trends continue, there is every reason to believe this summer's pricing will reflect the first half of 2022.
There are twenty-three homes in either La Pine or Redmond in the 300k range, with another forty-nine in the 400k range in Deschutes County. The two least expensive homes in Bend are 425k and 475k.
I can recommend fantastic lenders with creative ways to help you secure a great loan package for your situation. Once you make a purchase, refinancing at a lower rate in the future is always an option. However, waiting for lower rates will likely increase the purchase price and competition with other buyers. While we might not be experiencing a high percentage of multiple offer scenarios now, most desirable homes have several buyers circling. My broken-record statement still holds; home purchases should have a long-term focus! Whatever metric you like to track, I can run a personal report with comparables for you or use the great tools on EnjoyBendLife.com. Market Trends allow you to sort by price quartile and are updated weekly. Market Reports are highly customizable by neighborhood, zip code, or city and are updated from the MLS every fifteen minutes! My home valuation tool provides a price range from low to high, and sold searches are customizable to your particular interest. Of course, I want to hear from you directly, but many of the tools on my website allow you to research 24/7. You will not find more comprehensive data and tools on any other real estate website!