With the 30-year fixed-rate national average for a conventional mortgage still above 7%, the inventory of single-family homes in Deschutes County is steadily building. This week, there are 573 listings at a median of 739k, with forty-eight pending sales (647k) and fifty-nine (650k) sold homes. Today's inventory reflects a 12.1% increase from this week last year when there were only 511 homes listed. The median list price for active homes for last year's week was 700k, slightly down from this year, but the sixty-four pending sales median was 692k, while the thirty-eight closed transaction median was 627k. Comparing one week to another isn't the strongest metric, although the trend of lower sales for 2024 is consistent.
Many analysts predicted more robust sales volume nationwide for 2024, but those same analysts also predicted lower rates starting in March. It stands to reason when rates did not decline, or sales did not increase, which is playing out in Deschutes County.
Real estate is local, and inventory declined by eight to 107 single-family homes in Crook County, at a median of 600k. A robust fourteen sales at a median of 492k and two closed transactions of 318k and 489k round out the weekly numbers. Unlike Deschutes County, Crook County inventory is down ten from last year's week when the median list price was 50k lower than today. Fourteen pending sales and four closed transactions last year almost perfectly align with this week's numbers.
Inventory bounces around in the early stages of the spring selling season. However, despite growing inventory in Deschutes County, available homes in Central Oregon are still low enough to keep prices elevated. The longer interest rates stay elevated, the better chance that more homes will hit the market and prices will soften. The wrinkle in that equation is buyer demand, a complex dynamic to predict.
Jefferson County inventory dropped two this week to seventy-two listings at a median of 435k. This week last year showed sixty-eight active listings at a median of 430k, consistent with today's market. There were five pending sales this week last year as well as this week, but the median sale price went from 335k to 600k. Six closed transactions the previous year's week eclipse this week's one sale, but the median sale price last year of 347k is far short of this week's 940k. Jefferson County includes a large geographic area with a tremendous diversity of available properties, so do not read too much into the year-over-year pending and sold price discrepancies.
Overall, today's housing market is very much in line with the market of the last year or so. Mortgage rates are trending higher, as well as inflation, but low inventory keeps prices firm. The market is not impacted evenly by these dynamics, with many homes still selling in a matter of days at or near the full asking price. An accurate listing price is the key to a quick sale for sellers. Testing the market with a high price has increased marketing times tremendously. For unique properties in great locations, longer marketing times are typical, giving sellers time to start high and adjust as we get deeper into the year. However, with a mortgage rate pivot increasingly unlikely in 2024, sellers closer to the median sale price need to price accurately sooner rather than later.
With Central Oregon's growing population, most properties find a buyer eventually, and the old location of the church owned by the Roman Catholic Diocese in Crook County was put under contract this week after 782 days listed. This spectacular property sits on 38 acres, with 25 acres of water rights and expansive views of the Cascade Mountains. A home exists on the property, but the cabins, seven RV spots, and a 3,000-square-foot chapel make this far from a typical residential property. It will be interesting to see what the new owner has in store for this iconic location!