Reading the news these days feels like an exercise in confirmation bias, with bombastic headlines in all directions. Finding information approximating the middle ground or presenting an unbiased view is increasingly complex. This bias is especially evident in economic news, where recession, stagflation, and inflation take on different meanings and present with a different spin depending on the author's point of view. Since none of us can accurately predict the future, many opinions show the writer's particular bias more than they convey the likelihood of a specific outcome. Neither can the data I present here predict the future. However, the trend this year to date is one of stability. Mortgage rates are steady, with the 30-year fixed-rate conventional national average this morning at 6.99%. Sales activity remains consistent week after week as we begin the busiest time of year. Lastly, the trend of people relocating to Central Oregon continues, keeping a fresh pool of buyers engaged.
This morning, Deschutes County experienced another increase in the number of available single-family homes for sale, now at 1,373. The peak last year was 1,322 on June 7. The average listed home price is $1,134,306. Seventy-five pending weekly sales, at an average list price of $898,528, and just 16 median days listed indicate a strong market. The sixty-two sales averaged $921,663 and only 19 days listed. There is no question that activity is down from the peak experienced in 2021 and 2022, but steady is more important than volume today. The low days listed are the most critical data points, a trend for several weeks.
Crook County activity picked up considerably this week, with sixteen pending transactions at an average of $566,810 and a median days listed of thirty-four. Inventory declined by two to 216, with eight closed transactions at an average sale price of $774,862. The average price reduction of actively listed homes is -4.88%, -5.35% for pending sales, and -9.07% for this week's closed transactions. The price reductions for pending and closed transactions fluctuate considerably, depending on the property sold, but have ranged from -3% to -5% over the last several weeks.
Jefferson County inventory increased by just one to 118 single-family listings. Seven pending transactions, at an average of $622,557, and four closed transactions, at $510,688, are within the range of the last several weeks. With the median pending days listed at 52 and closed days at 110, buyers are scouring the relatively small number of available homes to find the right fit. Of the closed listings, one was on the market 249 days, another at 217, the third for just three days, and the last an immediate sale at zero days listed. Think about how you could spin the days listed of those four sales to make whatever case you wanted! The bigger takeaway from this metric is that buyers consider every home on the market and take action for the right property.
There aren't any "deals" in Central Oregon housing due to the high level of buyer activity. However, the increase in inventory helps buyers find suitable homes with a far greater selection than in previous years. At this time of year, it is crucial to recognize excellent properties at a reasonable price before another buyer enters the picture. The only way to make that determination is to stay current and keep an eye on the market segment that suits you. Looking online is a great resource, but there is no substitute for seeing homes in person. You never know a property until you walk the lot and tour the home. Please don't hesitate to contact me if you have questions about Central Oregon housing or would like to schedule a property tour.
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