Sales activity and closings across all three counties of Central Oregon are robust as we head into Memorial Day weekend, typically viewed as the start of peak-selling season for homes. The majority of homes sold will be between now and Labor Day, with new listings continuing through the bulk of summer. This year, inventory growth in Deschutes County has eclipsed the last few years, with the largest amount of actively listed single-family homes available since I started tracking in early 2022.
Jefferson County shows 92 single-family listings this morning, one less than the peak since 2022. Six pending sales occurred this week at an average of $350,660, with an average price reduction of -5.1%. One full-price sale at $436k rounds out the week. While inventory in Jefferson may have increased to near-peak levels recently, today's number is only six more than last week, well below a volume that would soften prices significantly. If Jefferson County is on your radar, keep an eye on how these trends develop over the summer, as this fall could bring some opportunities that have been a long time coming. Half of the pending sales in Jefferson County this week were below 400k, with one below 200k.
In Crook County, inventory declined eight to 111, the only county in Central Oregon not to see growth last week. With seventeen pending sales and nine closed transactions, activity was robust. The pending and closed transactions included homes in Brasada Ranch near Powell Butte, which significantly skewed the numbers. The median price for pending sales was $440k, with the average at $660k, showing how the higher-priced homes impact the stats. The median sale price for the nine closed transactions was $388,750, while the average was $608,727. The properties near Powell Butte or Brasada Ranch sell for well above $1M, while all of the transactions in Prineville and Crook County outside those areas sold or were pending for under $1M.
Deschutes County's inventory of single-family homes increased again this week to 998 listings. We have not had more than 1000 listings in years, and for buyers, the expanded number of options has helped tremendously. Prices remain firm, and mortgage rates stable, a dynamic that is not the easiest to navigate for many buyers. Eighty-one pending sales at a median of twenty days on the market show the continued strong buyer demand, with a median pending sale price of $650k and an average of $905k. The discrepancy between the median and average prices indicates the uptick in higher-priced homes going under contract. Sixty-two homes closed last week with a marketing time of only 23 days. The marketing time changes dramatically weekly, but anything below thirty would be considered a fast sale in our market. The days on the market are less meaningful than the volume of transactions. The median sale price for the closed transactions was $722k, while the average was $905k, closely aligned with the pending numbers this week. The median price reduction of the closed transactions was -4.55%, with an average of -4.1%.
Several factors are involved in pricing and price reductions. First and foremost is the accuracy of the list price and whether new inventory and sold properties support or detract from that price. Seller motivation is the second factor, followed by buyer demand. Attempting to use the median or average price reduction to paint a broad brush over all homes on the market will often set an unrealistic expectation for buyers. Still, these numbers can give you a good starting point for evaluating a potential sale price.
At this time of year, sellers of well-priced homes with solid buyer interest are not likely to accept 10% below the list price. In some cases, that can be a starting point, but it is very likely a seller will counter. Arbitrarily, deciding a home is over-priced and coming in low has a good chance of turning a seller off and making negotiations more difficult. As always, these decisions are on a case-by-case basis. However, buyers must understand that a low offer a seller rejects leaves few options. If price is the biggest issue for a buyer, testing the market with low offers is an excellent way to uncover potential deals. But, if you love the home and are not interested in continuing to search, starting negotiations closer to the asking price is a better strategy.
Feeling confident in pricing can be tricky, but market analysis is one of the strengths I bring to my clients. No matter where in Central Oregon you are focused, I have the knowledge and experience to help you evaluate any property you are considering. I am available whenever you have real estate questions.