This morning in Deschutes County, there are 813 single-family homes listed for sale, twenty-five fewer than last week and nine fewer than this week last year. In today's report, I will take some time to compare this week year-over-year and our sales to date year-over-year, as there are some interesting comparisons. As we approach the holiday season, sales will decline, and inventory, so today's data is very revealing in comparing the last two years.
For the week ending at the beginning of November 2022, there were 474 price drops at a median of -6.35% and a median list price of 688k. This week shows 450 price drops at a median reduction of -4.77% and a median list price of 775k. Sixty-nine pending sales this week last year and eighty-three sold homes at a median of 649k and 639k seemed like a slowdown from the pace of the first half of 2022. However, this week shows fifty pending and fifty-eight closed sales, forty-four fewer total transactions. The median pending sale price of 750k and closed price of 692k are significant increases over this week last year.
One week isn't enough to show a trend, although the changes from last year are significant, especially considering the national average for 30-year fixed-rate mortgages is 7.88%, up from 7.2% this week last year.
Through November 1, 2022, there were 3,670 sales in Deschutes County ,with 1,092 price reductions, which reflected 29.7% of sales. This year's total shows 2,755 sales and 1,125 reductions, 40.8% of total sales. The year-to-date median sale price is 660k, down from 685k in 2022, or -3.65%.
The large percentage of price reductions gives the impression of cooling prices. However, many asking prices this year anticipated another significant increase over 2022, which did not materialize. Today's reductions are not the deep discounts many assume, although nearly 41% of the sales taking a cut is enormous. Appropriate pricing is the key to making a sale in this economic environment.
I do not anticipate large changes in the numbers above with the short, holiday-interrupted time remaining in 2023. The floor on prices this year was unquestionably set by fewer listings, not increased buyer demand. All indications point towards another winter of decreasing inventory, with the low point likely in March. How low inventory drops and how long it stays depressed will set the tone early for pricing in 2024. Remember that just a few years ago, there would have been twice as many homes listed for sale as in the recent past. The other factor will be mortgage interest rates, which are likely near peak for the coming months. That doesn't mean rates won't breach 8% again, so keeping in close contact with your lender is imperative in today's price-sensitive market.
Lower inventory in Central Oregon will likely persist for the foreseeable future, making it more challenging to find the right property for your needs. When the right property comes along, price should be less of a consideration than suitability if making Oregon home is your goal. Waiting for significant price drops only opens the door for another buyer, and so far, those buyers haven't missed a beat. As inventory has tightened, many homes looked over in the past are getting snatched up. If new construction fits your needs, several options are available throughout Central Oregon, but the best options always move quickly.
Whatever your budget or timeframe, I am always available to help you sort out your options and help strategize.