Over the past several weeks, higher mortgage rates have dominated discussions. Today, the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage is 7.30%, up from 7.22% last week. Recently, I have read reports about slower sales and longer marketing times, many of which border on clickbait. While there is no question that higher mortgage interest rates increase borrowing costs, our market is more stable than recent reporting would have you believe, and I won’t even get into the misinformation and schadenfreude in the comment sections! I pulled data this week comparing September through today's sales for 2025 and 2026 to bring some reality into the conversation. As you will see below, there are some surprises here that even I didn’t expect.
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Deschutes County inventory fell by 39 this week to 1,224 single-family listings. The average list price is $1,062,978, with 766 of those properties reducing their asking price by an average of 6.82%. Fifty-four pending sales is a healthy increase over last week’s 38, with 33 of those listings reducing their asking price by an average of 9.06% before securing a contract. Thirty-five closed transactions are down by 29 from last week, with the average closed sale price at $856,846 and the sold-to-original-list-price ratio at 92.88%.
From September 1 to November 11, 2025, there were 772 closed transactions in Deschutes County, with an average closed price of $866,308 and an average of 78 days on the market. For this time period in 2026, there were 641 sales, with an average price of $885,260 and 72 days on the market. A 17% drop in sales is not insignificant.
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Crook County inventory increased by 3 this week to 267, with the average list price at $936,664 and 135 of those properties reducing their asking price by an average of 7.05%. Pending sales are down to 5 from 7 last week, with all of those transactions reducing their asking price by an average of 9.8% before securing a contract. Three closed transactions are a big drop from last week’s 8, with the average closed price at $718,000 and the sold-to-original-list-price ratio at 97.12%.
In Crook County from September 1 to November 11, 2025, there were 90 closed transactions, with an average closed price of $603,627 and an average of 92 days on the market. For this time period in 2026, there were 65 sales, with an average price of $990,296 and 181 days on the market. This represents a 30% drop in sales activity. However, the highest-priced sale in Crook County from September 1 through November 11, 2025 was $1,950,000, compared to the top three sales in this time period at $3,000,000, $6,800,000, and $15,000,000. Removing those sales leaves the average for the remaining 62 sales at $638,214, a modest increase over this time period last year.
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Jefferson County supply dropped from 142 to 136 this week, with the average list price at $573,178 and 77 of those listings reducing their asking price by an average of 5.52%. Six pending sales are down by 2 from last week, with four of those listings reducing their asking price by an average of 6.1% before securing a contract. Three closed transactions are down from 4 last week, with the average closed price at $603,000 and the sold-to-original-list-price ratio at 94.39%.
In Jefferson County from September 1 to November 11, 2025, there were 38 closed transactions, with an average closed price of $397,663 and an average of 94 days on the market. For this time period in 2026, there were 42 sales, with an average price of $486,931 and 81 days on the market. This represents a 10% increase in sales activity. There were two sales in Jefferson County in this period over $1 million, compared to the highest price in the same timeframe in 2025, which was $750,000.
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With the winter slowdown in real estate sales in Central Oregon just beginning, and the future mortgage interest trends yet to unfold, nothing in our market is carved in stone. How everything unfolds over the next few months will shape the spring market, with the next big news coming in early December when the Federal Reserve next meets to decide whether to raise the overnight rate. If the Fed chooses to hold rates where they are, the next meeting in late January will certainly calm markets through the end of the year. If you are interested in how the Central Oregon luxury market over $1 million is performing, tune in to my Friday Luxury Market Report. But for homes listed under $1 million, there are some unquestionably good deals available today.
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