Happy Thanksgiving Eve! I wish you and your loved ones a wonderful day, however you choose to celebrate. The weather tomorrow is forecast to be colder than the recent pleasantly warm weather, but sunny skies are on tap for your outdoor adventures. Friday, Mt. Bachelor opens for the season, adding one more activity to the list of possibilities. Most trail systems are still in prime condition for mountain biking, hiking, or running, so the options are endless!
This week, there are twenty-eight fewer listings in Deschutes County, now at 764. Fifty-one homes were pending at a median of 670k, with another 48 sold at the same median price. Consistent with the data over the last several weeks, 53.4% of the active listings have reduced the asking price by a median of -4.6%. The median list price-original list price ratio for the sold properties is 93.17%, indicating that sellers have come down nearly seven percent since listing their homes before finding a buyer. After analyzing the data, it is apparent that most price reductions are coming down from overly optimistic pricing for this year, not a collapse. The year-to-date median sale price has remained consistent at 660k. With 2,916 sales this year and approximately fifty sales per week, total sales for the year will break three-thousand, although likely less than the 3,197 of 2010. Deschutes County's population has increased by 30.7% since 2010, putting 2023's low sales volume in perspective. You also may recall that 2010 was just past the low point of the last housing crash.
Crook County inventory dropped by two, now at 144 active single-family listings, and remains remarkably stable over the last several weeks. Five homes are pending in the county at a median price change of -13.34%, more in favor of buyers than at any time in the last few years. The Prineville Market Trend Report illustrates this clearly. However, zero sales over the previous seven days in Crook County is an even stronger indication that buyers are gaining leverage. If you strip out the high-end sales from Brasada Ranch, the data looks even more favorable for Crook County buyers.
In Jefferson County, inventory declined by six, now at seventy-eight active listings. The weekly activity was robust, with six pending sales and four closings, especially considering only two pending transactions last week and zero closings. With such a diverse inventory of homes in the county, a median sale price of 687k is unsurprising, but the pending median price was less than half that at 315k. Conditions in Madras are nearing a balanced market, although still slightly favoring sellers. The Market Trend Report for Madras shows the trend clearly.
The Market Trend Reports on my website are a fantastic resource, especially when the market is transitioning based on market factors or during seasonal changes. I have links to all the Central Oregon Zip Codes on my website (accessed from the top navigation bar or at the menu icon in the upper right corner). Use this link for the conglomerated data in a single report for the entire city of Bend. Registering to receive Market Trend Reports opens the ability to search for any zip code or city in the country to access city-specific data using the search bar at the top of each report.
This morning, the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 7.33%, a significant drop from recent highs. Despite recent optimism, reading the narrative following the last Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting shows no sign of backing off the "higher, longer" narrative. However, the recent reprieve in interest rates and our seasonal slowdown have created buyer opportunities. As the inventory of available homes dwindles, our market is constantly sorted, with many homes that have lingered on the market suddenly looking strong in comparison. Most homes on the market for an extended time have also reduced the asking price. The combination creates activity as buyers "clean up" before year-end. With fewer new listings at this time of year and most highly marketable properties listed in the spring, buyers recognize that great deals are available today. Missing out could mean waiting for months before suitable inventory is back on the market.
Buyers at this time of year generally have a little breathing room with offers. However, complacency could mean losing a desirable property. Especially with the recent drop in interest rates, staying in contact with your lender and being poised to make an offer is essential. Many sellers of higher-priced homes in our market require proof of funds or a pre-approval for showings. A screenshot of sufficient funds to close is all it takes for cash buyers, which generally isn't time-consuming. A pre-approval can take more time and resources if you finance your purchase. As the economy has tightened, so have the requirements lenders ask of buyers, which vary based on your financial situation. A salaried employee will have significantly less paperwork to gather than a self-employed entrepreneur or someone with several sources of income. No matter your situation, I have a team of local lenders I work with, and I can point you in the right direction. Of course, a pre-approval from a lender you already have a relationship with also works. Pre-approval is more than simply being prepared to make an offer; it sets the tone for a relationship with a seller. Everything we do from the moment I call to schedule a showing is evaluated by a seller and listing agent. Presenting you in the best light possible to secure a contract is one of many jobs I have in helping you find the perfect home!
Where interest rates and the housing market go from here is a mystery. But, I am always current on the Central Oregon data and broader financial markets. Please reach out if you are looking for specific data or want to discuss market trends. Everyone's situation is unique, and I am always interested in hearing your perspective.