Happy Thanksgiving! I hope you have a relaxing holiday with family and friends. Typically, the day after Thanksgiving marks the opening day for Mt. Bachelor in Central Oregon, but this year the weather hasn't cooperated. However, relatively mild conditions mean hiking, mountain biking, or walking in your favorite downtown area are all great options this year.
Next week's numbers will be down with fewer business days for transactions, and most people will be taking a well-deserved break. However, this week's activity remains steady, continuing the trend of more transactions this year than last. The national average for a 30-year fixed-rate mortgage is 6.22% this morning, approaching recent lows and likely contributing to the strong activity this fall. When business starts again on Monday morning, there will only be 22 business days left this year! Most pending sales beginning Monday will close in 2026, making 2025 nearly a memory.
This morning in Deschutes County, there are 17 fewer listings than last week, now at 1,056. On this day in 2024, there were 1,019 active listings, with the steady activity this fall cleaning up a lot of excess inventory. Sixty-two pending sales this week are down a bit from recent trends, but ten more than this week last year. Sixty closed transactions this week are seven more than in 2024. The sold-to-original list price ratio this week was 94.8%, compared to 96.1% last year.
Active listings in Crook County this week are down nine from last week to 180, nine more than this week in 2024. Eight pending sales this week are one more than this week last year, and eight closed transactions are double last year's. The sold-to-original list price ratio this week was 92.46%, compared to 95.85% last year.
In Jefferson County, inventory increased by three to 127, compared to 107 this week last year. There were no pending sales this week, compared to 5 in 2024. Four transactions closed this week, down two from this week last year. The sold-to-original list price ratio this week was 94.92%, compared to 90.21% last year. With so few closed transactions in Jefferson County each week, year-over-year comparisons don't carry much weight.
Mortgage interest rates in 2026 should be nearly 6%, down 75 basis points from much of 2025. Buyers have already responded to lower rates this fall, as indicated by the increase in sales volume this year. The trend of more sales volume should continue next year, which will bring inventory down slightly. Looking at this year's price trends, I expect modest price growth next year. If mortgage interest rates dip below 6%, prices will firm up, and inventory will decrease further. Most of these developments will be modest, with stability in our housing market continuing into 2026.
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