With the next Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting only six days away, the industry insiders expect another rate cut. Mortgage rates move in anticipation of Fed cuts, not in reaction to them, and judging by today's national average 30-year fixed-rate conventional mortgage rate of 6.17%, another 25 basis point cut is most likely on the way. The FOMC's last meeting of the year is on December 9, and it is likely to result in another 25% decrease in the overnight rate. While activity this fall has been steady, I don't anticipate these end-of-year decreases to make a significant impact on the 2025 housing market. However, the reduced rates now are beginning to paint a picture of what is in store for 2026.
This morning in Deschutes County, the inventory of single-family homes decreased by 27 to 1,255. This level is 110 more than last year this week as supply begins the natural decrease into the winter months. Pending sale activity remains stable with 64 homes finding buyers, at an average list price of $923,729. Four of the pending sales exceeded $2 million, with another nine exceeding $1 million. Sixty-two transactions closed this week at an average list price of $934,656, with thirty-eight of those sales reducing the list price before securing a buyer. Thirty-one of the closed transactions negotiated a price below the asking price, with eight properties selling above the asking price.
Inventory in Crook County decreased by five this week, now at 217 single-family listings, and an increase of thirty-three from last year this week. Eight pending sales averaged $500,794, with two of those sales reducing the asking price before securing a buyer. The first of the pending sales that reduced the asking price went from $395k to $339k, while the second dropped from $800k to $549k! Five transactions closed this week, averaging $607,999. One of those closed sales was at Brasada Ranch for $1,399,999, with the original list price of $1,625,000. All four of the remaining sales negotiated a price below the list price.
Jefferson County is the outlier this week, gaining two listings to bring the total single-family listings to 130, thirteen more than this week last year. There were three pending sales this week, with one listing decreasing the list price by 3.45% before securing a buyer. Five transactions closed, averaging $385,151, with one reducing the asking price by 2.45% before securing the buyer. One of the sales negotiated a very slight discount below the asking price, while two transactions sold above the list price.
Evaluating data across the three counties of Central Oregon requires knowledge of our area and hand calculations beyond what is available in our MLS. In many cases, homes are selling for considerably less than the list price or the reduced asking price. Every property is unique, and I am always happy to help you determine what a property might sell for, whether you are buying or selling.
Mortgage interest rates rose steeply starting in 2022 and surpassed 4% on February 14 of that year. Rates peaked on October 16, 2023, at 7.94%, before the slow, steady decline to this morning's rate of 6.17%. With rates on track to be in the 5% range for 2026, this chapter of the housing market is closing, and the next begins in early spring. As buyers re-engage the market in earnest, I expect less inventory accumulation, firmer prices, and less negotiating as next year unfolds. All of these scenarios will tighten as we get closer to 5%, and even more so if rates drop below that threshold.
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