While mortgage rates may have moderated slightly from last week, now at 6.65% for the national average of a 30-year fixed-rate loan, the market remains volatile. Moreover, with another 75 basis point increase expected from the Fed at the next meeting on November 1-2, 2022, There is every reason to believe loans will get more expensive by year-end. As a result, the housing market is cooling beyond what would be typical for the season, especially compared to last year. For example, from Wednesday, September 29, 2021, to the first Wednesday of October 2021 in Deschutes County, there were 150 sold single-family homes. Of the sold homes this week last year, the median days on the market were eight, with 45 price changes at a median of -5.84%. The median sale price was $614,750. Since September 28, 2022, through this morning, there have been 81 sales at thirty-nine median days on the market. Forty of the sold homes in the previous week lowered the asking price by a median of -6.43%. Tellingly for the sold totals moving forward, this week in Deschutes County, only fifty-five homes were put under contract compared to seventy-five the week prior. Even with the reduced sale volume, the median sale price this year increased by almost 50k to $662,500 compared to last year's week. Active inventory this morning stands at 908 single-family homes in Deschutes County.
Nationwide, home inventory has increased sharply from the trend of the last several weeks, while there are fewer homes for sale in Deschutes County. Some of this is natural seller attrition in anticipation of the winter season. However, considering how mild the early fall has been, the decline is more likely attributed to sellers waiting out the market. Time will tell if Deschutes County lags the national trends or our market is experiencing a different dynamic. There is little doubt there are still people relocating to Central Oregon from larger cities, but our meager pending sales last week could indicate the future. Stay tuned to my weekly reports to stay on top of this and other essential metrics impacting our real estate market. Candidly, with the economy flatlining and mortgage rates climbing, I expect home prices to continue to decline. As mentioned several times this year, the unknown variable is available inventory. Midway through April 2022, there were only 333 single-family homes for sale in Deschutes County. If homes for sale reach those lows as we begin the peak of selling season 2023, it will place a floor on how low home prices go—assuming a reasonable volume of active buyers.
If you are a cash buyer motivated to buy this season, there is little doubt that overall conditions are good. Although, not every home is a candidate for deep price cuts. Evaluating sold and pending homes in the neighborhood of your choosing and the days a particular house has lingered on the market will help reveal the likelihood of a seller taking less. I cannot stress enough how valuable the Market Trend Reports on my website are for this and the Market Reports tool. You'll find many Market Reports for specific neighborhoods and areas linked on my website, or you can access the Market Report tool at the top navigation bar of my site to set parameters. In addition, there are several popular reports at the bottom of this email. Either way, the information is up-to-date and extremely useful in helping you determine a strategy. If you need help deciphering and working with any of these tools, I am happy to give you my knowledgeable insight. If you desire a more specific analysis or want me to be your agent to help guide you through the process, I am available to run an in-depth report from our MLS and the tools on my site. You would be hard-pressed to find anyone that analyzes market data to the level I do weekly!