After several weeks of volatility, mortgage interest rates appear to have stabilized, with the national average for a 30-year fixed-rate conventional loan at 7.59% today. While the Federal Reserve is likely to raise rates again over the next several months, mortgage rates price in those increases and are unlikely to change dramatically. Unless Kevin Warsh changes his narrative significantly, we have settled into the next rate cycle for now. As expected, activity has softened a bit, but many buyers have waited all year for the right opportunities to arise and are undeterred. With the holiday season and (hopefully!) winter weather on the way, I anticipate stable activity over the next several weeks as we head into winter.
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Deschutes County inventory is now in steady seasonal decline, down 28 from last week to 1,354. Sixty-two pending sales are up by 4 from last week, with 37 of those listings reducing their asking price by an average of 7.19% before securing a contract. Sixty-three closed transactions are down 16 from last week, with 28 of those listings reducing the asking price by an average of 7.76% before securing a buyer, and a sold-to-original-list-price ratio of 94.96%.
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Crook County’s inventory has resisted the seasonal decline and is up one from last week to 264. Eight pending sales are down 4 from last week, with all of those listings reducing their asking price before securing a contract by an average of 6.41%. Twelve closed transactions this week are a huge jump from last week's 3 closed deals, with half of those listings reducing their asking price by an average of 4.55% before securing a buyer. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 96.71%.
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Inventory in Jefferson County has also resisted the typical seasonal decline, dropping three from last week to 150. Pending transactions fell sharply to 3 from last week’s 7, with one listing reducing the asking price by 3.66% before securing a contract. Eight closed transactions are double last week’s total, with 3 reducing the asking price by 4.25% before securing a buyer. The sold-to-original-list-price ratio was 96.37%.
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In both Crook and Jefferson County, the lower average sale price and higher percentage of lower-priced properties have kept the sold-to-original-list-price ratio higher, since many of these homes are priced low enough that buyers can secure financing, with enough competition to keep prices firm. In Deschutes County, where a higher percentage of homes push the price envelope, sellers have more wiggle room to adjust prices to secure a buyer, resulting in a slightly lower sold-to-original-list-price ratio. No matter which county in Central Oregon you are looking in, sellers are showing motivation, and prices are softening up a bit.
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