Available inventory is a significant metric impacting the Central Oregon housing market now and into the future. While more homes for sale this year than in the recent past has helped selection, prices have remained firm. However, there are signs that economic uncertainty might be slowing price appreciation. Also, after a stretch of mortgage rates hovering around 6.2%, the national average for a fixed-rate 30-year conventional mortgage this morning is 6.62%. Inventory did begin the seasonal decline more or less on schedule, but that decline has been slow, keeping conditions moderately in favor of buyers. How low inventory declines this winter will significantly impact spring market dynamics. Lower mortgage rates and a steady economy would mop up available inventory and put upward pressure on prices. However, a slowing in economic conditions and more inventory could derail that.
The inventory of single-family homes in Deschutes County is 1174, down modestly from last week. Pending sales of 71 align with recent trends but are down from last week's robust 89. Thirty-eight properties closed, a relatively small number compared to the previous few weeks and the lowest number since March 2024. This week in 2023, 846 single-family homes were listed for sale, compared to 905 in 2022.
Crook County's inventory grew by one this week to 180 single-family homes listed. Eight pending sales and seven closed transactions show steady activity for the county. One hundred forty-four homes were listed this week in 2023, compared to 149 in 2022.
Jefferson County also experienced inventory growth, up two from the previous week to 118. Six pending sales and three closed transactions are consistent with a typical week in the county at this time of year. This week in 2023, 85 homes were listed, with 88 in 2022.
Comparing inventory today in all three Central Oregon counties to the past two years shows a significant increase in homes for sale. Buyer conditions are better than they have been in quite a while, but transactions are lagging. If this trend continues and homes for sale stay elevated, it could turn the expected dynamic of low rates, less inventory, and higher prices on its head this spring.
